IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/jecman/v42y2020i4p48-69n5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Housing loans and domestic credit in the Baltic States and Poland: Structural breaks and macroeconomic determinants

Author

Listed:
  • Hegerty Scott W.

    (Department of Economics, College of Arts and Sciences, Northeastern Illinois University, Chicago, USA)

Abstract

Aim/purpose – This study examines the time-series properties of home loans and domestic credit in Poland and the three Baltic countries, first in the univariate sense by identifying structural breaks in the series, and then using a multivariate model to identify the key drivers of loan growth. Design/methodology/approach – Structural break tests are conducted using the method of Bai & Perron (1998), while orthgonalised VARs are used for the macroeconomic model. Findings – The Estonian and Lithuanian home lending growth series have structural breaks in 2007, preceding the onset of the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. Estonian home lending has two additional structural breaks in 2009 and 2013. Neither of the two Polish lending series has any break after the sample begins in 2009, indicating more stability in the country’s markets. In the macroeconomic model, consumer price inflation and real effective exchange-rate appreciations have the largest influence on lending and credit growth, and Poland more affected than the Baltic countries. Research implications/limitations – This study opens the door to future research behind the specific causes of structural breaks in these series. While there is some evidence of an ‘early warning’ before the 2008 crisis, longer data series are needed for Poland and especially in the case of Latvia. Originality/value/contribution – This study offers insight into the lending markets in an area of the world that was significantly impacted by the 2008 crisis. Understanding the behaviour and causes of lending growth will help avoid future problems.

Suggested Citation

  • Hegerty Scott W., 2020. "Housing loans and domestic credit in the Baltic States and Poland: Structural breaks and macroeconomic determinants," Journal of Economics and Management, Sciendo, vol. 42(4), pages 48-69, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:jecman:v:42:y:2020:i:4:p:48-69:n:5
    DOI: 10.22367/jem.2020.42.03
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.22367/jem.2020.42.03
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.22367/jem.2020.42.03?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    2. Constantin-Marius Apostoaie & Stanislav Percic & Vasile Cocriş & Dan Chirleşan, 2014. "Research on the Credit Cycle and Business Cycle with a Focus on Ten States from Central, Eastern, and Southeastern Europe," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(S4), pages 63-77.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Hegerty, Scott W., 2024. "Commodity prices and domestic credit in Central and Eastern Europe: Are there asymmetric effects?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 48(1).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Hansen, Lars Peter, 2013. "Uncertainty Outside and Inside Economic Models," Nobel Prize in Economics documents 2013-7, Nobel Prize Committee.
    2. Alfonso Mendoza-Velázquez & Luis Carlos Ortuño-Barba & Luis David Conde-Cortés, 2022. "Corporate governance and firm performance in hybrid model countries," Review of Accounting and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 21(1), pages 32-58, February.
    3. Punzi, Maria Teresa, 2016. "Financial cycles and co-movements between the real economy, finance and asset price dynamics in large-scale crises," FinMaP-Working Papers 61, Collaborative EU Project FinMaP - Financial Distortions and Macroeconomic Performance: Expectations, Constraints and Interaction of Agents.
    4. Antonella Cavallo & Antonio Ribba, 2017. "Measuring the Effects of Oil Price and Euro-area Shocks on CEECs Business Cycles," Department of Economics 0111, University of Modena and Reggio E., Faculty of Economics "Marco Biagi".
    5. Evans, Charles L. & Marshall, David A., 2007. "Economic determinants of the nominal treasury yield curve," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1986-2003, October.
    6. Nautz, Dieter & Netšunajev, Aleksei & Strohsal, Till, 2016. "The anchoring of inflation expectations in the short and in the long run," SFB 649 Discussion Papers 2016-015, Humboldt University Berlin, Collaborative Research Center 649: Economic Risk.
    7. KAMKOUM, Arnaud Cedric, 2023. "The Federal Reserve’s Response to the Global Financial Crisis and its Effects: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of the Impact of its Quantitative Easing Programs," Thesis Commons d7pvg, Center for Open Science.
    8. Bierens, H.J. & Broersma, L., 1991. "The relation between unemployment and interest rate : some international evidence," Serie Research Memoranda 0112, VU University Amsterdam, Faculty of Economics, Business Administration and Econometrics.
    9. Xu, Haifeng & Hamori, Shigeyuki, 2012. "Dynamic linkages of stock prices between the BRICs and the United States: Effects of the 2008–09 financial crisis," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(4), pages 344-352.
    10. Viviane Luporini, 1999. "Federal domestic debt in Brazil: 1981-1996," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td128, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
    11. Zheng, Li & Abbasi, Kashif Raza & Salem, Sultan & Irfan, Muhammad & Alvarado, Rafael & Lv, Kangjuan, 2022. "How technological innovation and institutional quality affect sectoral energy consumption in Pakistan? Fresh policy insights from novel econometric approach," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 183(C).
    12. Huang, Shupei & An, Haizhong & Gao, Xiangyun & Sun, Xiaoqi, 2017. "Do oil price asymmetric effects on the stock market persist in multiple time horizons?," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 185(P2), pages 1799-1808.
    13. Zia-Ur- Rahman, 2019. "Influence of Excessive Expenditure of the Government in Perspective of Interest Rate and Money Circulation Which in Turn Affects the Growing Process in Pakistan," Asian Journal of Economics and Empirical Research, Asian Online Journal Publishing Group, vol. 6(2), pages 120-129.
    14. Pérez-Forero, Fernando, 2016. "Comparación de la transmisión de choques de política monetaria en América Latina: Un panel VAR jerárquico," Revista Estudios Económicos, Banco Central de Reserva del Perú, issue 32, pages 10-34.
    15. Francisco de Castro, 2006. "The macroeconomic effects of fiscal policy in Spain," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(8), pages 913-924.
    16. Sun, Yanpeng & Song, Yuru & Long, Chi & Qin, Meng & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2023. "How to improve global environmental governance? Lessons learned from climate risk and climate policy uncertainty," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 1666-1676.
    17. David Card, 2022. "Design-Based Research in Empirical Microeconomics," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 112(6), pages 1773-1781, June.
    18. António Afonso & Yasfir Ibraimo, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of public debt: an empirical analysis of Mozambique," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 52(2), pages 212-226, January.
    19. Ratti, Ronald A. & Vespignani, Joaquin L., 2013. "Crude oil prices and liquidity, the BRIC and G3 countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 28-38.
    20. Guochang Wang & Wai Keung Li & Ke Zhu, 2018. "New HSIC-based tests for independence between two stationary multivariate time series," Papers 1804.09866, arXiv.org.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Home lending; domestic credit; Poland; Baltics; time series;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E51 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Money Supply; Credit; Money Multipliers
    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:jecman:v:42:y:2020:i:4:p:48-69:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.