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Refugees welcome, but not in my backyard? The impact of immigration on right-wing voting: evidence from Germany

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  • Jasny Johannes

    (Department of Agricultural Markets, University of Hohenheim, Schwerzstraße 46, 70593Stuttgart, Germany)

  • Becker Tilman

    (Department of Agricultural Markets, University of Hohenheim, Schwerzstraße 46, 70593Stuttgart, Germany)

Abstract

This article studies whether immigration in voter’s neighborhoods is a driving factor of the rise of Germany’s major right-wing party Alternative fuer Deutschland (AFD) and the decline of Angela Merkel’s center ruling party the Christian Democratic Union (CDU). We use the 2015 refugee crisis as a natural experiment to study the short-run impact of refugee presence on the voting behavior in German municipalities. This is the first study to use a spatial econometric framework combining small-scale immigration data, election data, and a set of socioeconomic factors. Our main finding states that the local immigration boosted AFD votes but did not affect CDU votes directly. Instead, in regions that perceived immigration indirectly, that is in neighboring municipalities, the CDU gained fewer votes.

Suggested Citation

  • Jasny Johannes & Becker Tilman, 2020. "Refugees welcome, but not in my backyard? The impact of immigration on right-wing voting: evidence from Germany," IZA Journal of Development and Migration, Sciendo & Forschungsinstitut zur Zukunft der Arbeit GmbH (IZA), vol. 11(1), pages 1-20, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:izajdm:v:11:y:2020:i:1:p:20:n:3
    DOI: 10.2478/izajodm-2020-0013
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Voting behaviour; immigration; unemployment; refugee crisis management; socioeconomic inequality; demographics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • H12 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - Crisis Management
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J15 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of Minorities, Races, Indigenous Peoples, and Immigrants; Non-labor Discrimination

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