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Modelling prediction of unemployment statistics using web technologies

Author

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  • Popescu Mioara

    (Bucharest University of Economic Studies, 6, Piața Romană, district 1)

Abstract

The global diffusion of Internet involves economic, political and demographic factors that can predict in real time. In this article, we demonstrate that according to data provided by EUROSTAT, the number of people looking for a job in Romania it is correlated with specific query terms using Google Trends. Search engine data is used to “predict the present” values of different economic indicators. The obtained results are compared with the classical method of developing the economic indicators, with official EUROSTAT employment data. In this paper, we demonstrate that the new methods to extract the economic indicators from web technologies are accurate.

Suggested Citation

  • Popescu Mioara, 2017. "Modelling prediction of unemployment statistics using web technologies," HOLISTICA – Journal of Business and Public Administration, Sciendo, vol. 8(3), pages 55-60, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:hjobpa:v:8:y:2017:i:3:p:55-60:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/hjbpa-2017-0023
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. McLaren, Nick & Shanbhogue, Rachana, 2011. "Using internet search data as economic indicators," Bank of England Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, vol. 51(2), pages 134-140.
    2. Scott Baker & Andrey Fradkin, 2011. "What Drives Job Search? Evidence from Google Search Data," Discussion Papers 10-020, Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research.
    3. Jennifer L. Castle & Nicholas W.P. Fawcett & David F. Hendry, 2009. "Nowcasting Is Not Just Contemporaneous Forecasting," National Institute Economic Review, National Institute of Economic and Social Research, vol. 210(1), pages 71-89, October.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Data Mining; Big Data; Demography; Unemployment; Job Search;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing

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