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Balance of Payments as a Monetary Phenomenon: An ARDL Bounds Test Method for Algeria

Author

Listed:
  • Ghilous Azeddine

    (Farhat Abbas University Setif1, Department of Economic Science, Marketing and Economic Studies and Research Laboratory (LERME), Setif, Algeria)

  • Ziat Adel

    (Farhat Abbas University Setif1, Department of Economic Science, Marketing and Economic Studies and Research Laboratory (LERME), Setif, Algeria)

Abstract

Research background Every country attempts to improve its balance of payments (BOP) position to enhance macroeconomic policy. Algeria, like many developing countries, is experiencing a BOP deficit. This raises concerns about the reasons for this deficit and prioritizes the quest for potential answers. Purpose In the context of the Monetary Approach to the balance of payments (MABP), this paper investigates the long-run relationship between domestic credit, inflation, interest rate, GDP, and net foreign assets to find whether BOP is a monetary phenomenon in Algeria from 1980 to 2019. Research methodology: The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds test, combined with the critical approximation p-values of Kripfganz and Schneider (2020), has been applied. Results The findings clearly showed a long-run relationship among the variables. The long-run estimates strongly supported MABP propositions, and domestic credit had a negative and statistically significant influence on net foreign assets. This suggests that Algeria’s BOP is a monetary phenomenon, and excess money supply played a crucial role in Algeria’s balance of payments disequilibrium. Novelty The contribution of this paper is the use of the ARDL bounds test in combination with the novel critical approximation p-values of Kripfganz and Schneider (2020), which provided more robust results. This study could help monetary authorities to elaborate the suitable policies in dealing with BOP problems in Algeria.

Suggested Citation

  • Ghilous Azeddine & Ziat Adel, 2023. "Balance of Payments as a Monetary Phenomenon: An ARDL Bounds Test Method for Algeria," Folia Oeconomica Stetinensia, Sciendo, vol. 23(1), pages 64-86, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:foeste:v:23:y:2023:i:1:p:64-86:n:7
    DOI: 10.2478/foli-2023-0004
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Balance of Payments; Monetary Approach; Algeria; ARDL; Cointegration;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E12 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Keynes; Keynesian; Post-Keynesian; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E50 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - General

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