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Cross-Sectional Returns with Volatility Regimes from a Diverse Portfolio of Emerging and Developed Equity Indices

Author

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  • Sakowski Paweł

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Warsaw University and Union Investment TFI S.A.; PS: Faculty of Economic Sciences, Warsaw University Poland)

  • Ślepaczuk Robert

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Warsaw University and Union Investment TFI S.A.; PS: Faculty of Economic Sciences, Warsaw University Poland)

  • Wywiał Mateusz

    (Faculty of Economic Sciences, Warsaw University and Union Investment TFI S.A.; PS: Faculty of Economic Sciences, Warsaw University Poland)

Abstract

This article aims to extend evaluation of the classic multifactor model of Carhart (1997) for the case of global equity indices and to expand analysis performed in Sakowski et. al. (2015). Our intention is to test several modifications of these models to take into account different dynamics of equity excess returns between emerging and developed equity indices. Proposed extensions include a volatility regime switching mechanism (using dummy variables and the Markov approach) and the fifth risk factor based on realized volatility of index returns.Moreover, instead of using data for stocks of a particular market (which is a common approach in the literature), we check performance of these models for weekly data of 81 world investable equity indices in the period of 2000-2015. Such an approach is proposed to estimate an equity risk premium for a single country.Empirical evidence reveals important differences between results for classical models estimated on single stocks (either in international or US-only frameworks) and models evaluated for equity in­dices. Additionally, we observe substantial discrepancies between results for developed countries and emerging markets. Finally, using weekly data for the last 15 years we illustrate the importance of model risk and data overfitting effects when drawing conclusions upon results of multifactor models.

Suggested Citation

  • Sakowski Paweł & Ślepaczuk Robert & Wywiał Mateusz, 2016. "Cross-Sectional Returns with Volatility Regimes from a Diverse Portfolio of Emerging and Developed Equity Indices," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 23-35.
  • Handle: RePEc:vrs:finiqu:v:12:y:2016:i:2:p:23-35:n:1003
    DOI: 10.1515/fiqf-2016-0141
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    1. Paweł Sakowski & Robert Ślepaczuk & Mateusz Wywiał, 2016. "Do Multi-Factor Models Produce Robust Results? Econometric And Diagnostic Issues In Equity Risk Premia Study," Working Papers 2016-08, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    cross-sectional models; asset pricing models; equity risk premiums; emerging and developed equity indices; data overfitting and model risk;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C15 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Statistical Simulation Methods: General
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • F30 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - General
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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