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A Comparison Between Fama and French Model and Liquidity-Based Three Factor Models in Predicting Portfolio Returns

Author

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  • Ruzita Abdul Rahim

    (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia)

  • Abu Hassan Shaari Mohd. Nor

    (Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, 43600 Bangi, Selangor, Malaysia)

Abstract

The main objective of this paper is to evaluate the forecasting accuracy of two liquidity-based three-factor models, SiLiq and DiLiq, which have been developed as potential improvements on the Fama-French model. Using common stocks of 230 to 480 listed firms, this study constructs 27 test portfolios double-sorted on: (i) size and book-to-market ratio (B/M), (ii) size and share turnover (TURN) and (iii) B/M and TURN. The study sets the periods of January 1987 to December 2000 for estimation and January 2001 to December 2004 as forecast sample. The forecast errors are measured using mean absolute percentage errors and Theil's Inequality Coefficient. The preliminary results clearly document that three-factor models outperform CAPM. While the hypotheses of no significant differences cannot be rejected, the marginal difference in the errors of the competing three-factor models indicate that predicting returns on stocks traded on Bursa Malaysia can be slightly improved by incorporating illiquidity risk in a three-factor model in the form of DiLiq.

Suggested Citation

  • Ruzita Abdul Rahim & Abu Hassan Shaari Mohd. Nor, 2006. "A Comparison Between Fama and French Model and Liquidity-Based Three Factor Models in Predicting Portfolio Returns," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 2(2), pages 43-60.
    • Handle: RePEc:usm:journl:aamjaf00202_43-60
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Paweł Sakowski & Robert Ślepaczuk & Mateusz Wywiał, 2016. "Applying exogenous variables and regime switching to multi-factor models on equity indices," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 47.
    2. Rapheedah Musneh & Mohd. Rahimie Abdul Karim & Caroline Geetha A/P Arokiadasan Baburaw, 2021. "Liquidity risk and stock returns: empirical evidence from industrial products and services sector in Bursa Malaysia," Future Business Journal, Springer, vol. 7(1), pages 1-10, December.
    3. Nahzat Abbas & Jahanzeb Khan & Rabia Aziz & Zain Sumrani, 2015. "A Study to Check the Applicability of Fama and French, Three-Factor Model on KSE 100-Index from 2004-2014," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 6(1), pages 90-100, January.
    4. Al-Awadhi, Abdullah M. & Dempsey, Michael, 2017. "Social norms and market outcomes: The effects of religious beliefs on stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 119-134.
    5. Mselmi, Nada & Hamza, Taher & Lahiani, Amine & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2019. "Pricing corporate financial distress: Empirical evidence from the French stock market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 13-27.
    6. Pheng Bian Ong & Mohamed Hisham Hanifa & Mansor Mohd Isa, 2018. "Do Firm Size and Value Affect Shareholder Returns in Malaysia?," Capital Markets Review, Malaysian Finance Association, vol. 26(2), pages 53-69.
    7. Paweł Sakowski & Robert Ślepaczuk & Mateusz Wywiał, 2016. "Do Multi-Factor Models Produce Robust Results? Econometric And Diagnostic Issues In Equity Risk Premia Study," Working Papers 2016-08, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw.
    8. Sakowski Paweł & Ślepaczuk Robert & Wywiał Mateusz, 2016. "Cross-Sectional Returns with Volatility Regimes from a Diverse Portfolio of Emerging and Developed Equity Indices," Financial Internet Quarterly (formerly e-Finanse), Sciendo, vol. 12(2), pages 23-35.
    9. Roslily Ramlee & Ruhani Ali, 2012. "Liquidity, Initial Public Offering (IPO) Long-Term Return and Government Ownership Evidence from Bursa Malaysia IPO Stocks," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 8(Supp. 1), pages 39-66.
    10. Jelena Minović & Boško Živković, 2012. "Impact Of Liquidity And Size Premium On Equity Price Formation In Serbia," Economic Annals, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Belgrade, vol. 57(195), pages 43-78, October -.

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