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A new link function for the prediction of binary variables

Author

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  • Gheno Gloria

    (Free University of Bolzano-Bozen, Italy)

Abstract

If there are no heavy sanctions in place to prevent it, the problem of the cancellation of appointments can lead to huge economic losses and can have a significant impact on underutilized resources of healthcare facilities. A good model to predict the appointment cancellations could be an effective solution to this problem. Therefore, a new Bayesian method is proposed to estimate accurately the probability of the cancellation of visits to healthcare institutions based on specific factors such as age. This model uses the regression for binary variables, linking the explanatory variables to the probability of appearance at a previously made appointment with a new weighted function and estimating the parameters with the Bayesian method. The goodness of the new method is demonstrated by applying it to a real case and by comparing it to other methodologies. Therefore, the advantages of the proposed method are exposed and possible real-world applications are described.

Suggested Citation

  • Gheno Gloria, 2018. "A new link function for the prediction of binary variables," Croatian Review of Economic, Business and Social Statistics, Sciendo, vol. 4(2), pages 67-77, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:crebss:v:4:y:2018:i:2:p:67-77:n:8
    DOI: 10.2478/crebss-2018-0014
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. David J. Spiegelhalter & Nicola G. Best & Bradley P. Carlin & Angelika Van Der Linde, 2002. "Bayesian measures of model complexity and fit," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 64(4), pages 583-639, October.
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    3. Samorani, Michele & LaGanga, Linda R., 2015. "Outpatient appointment scheduling given individual day-dependent no-show predictions," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 240(1), pages 245-257.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Bayesian method; binary variables; cancellation prediction; heath care; link function;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C50 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • I11 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Analysis of Health Care Markets

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