IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vrs/coecre/v19y2016i3p93-111n5.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Economic Growth, Corporate Earnings and Equity Returns: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Gajdka Jerzy

    (Ph.D., Full Professor at the University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, Department of Industrial Economics and Capital Market)

  • Pietraszewski Piotr

    (Ph.D., University of Lodz, Faculty of Economics and Sociology, Department of Industrial Econonmics and Capital Market)

Abstract

This paper discusses the links between economic growth, corporate earnings and stock returns. Cross-country correlation studies do not confirm the intuitive assumption that higher returns on equities are more likely in the faster-growing countries. The problem can be analysed more deeply by analysing stock returns with respect to the growth of earnings per share (EPS) and changes in valuation (P/E ratio). Within this framework, two types of factors explaining the lack of correlation between GDP growth and stock returns are distinguished. The empirical research on developed and emerging market countries reveals that in the long run stock price returns are driven by companies’ earnings, and that the lack of correlation between GDP growth and equity returns is almost fully explained by the divergence between GDP growth and EPS growth. In this article the results of an investigation into this area, based on a sample of post-communist Central and Eastern European countries, are presented and discussed. It was found that in these countries changes in valuation (P/E ratio) appear to play an important role, cancelling the impact of EPS growth on stock returns.

Suggested Citation

  • Gajdka Jerzy & Pietraszewski Piotr, 2016. "Economic Growth, Corporate Earnings and Equity Returns: Evidence from Central and Eastern European Countries," Comparative Economic Research, Sciendo, vol. 19(3), pages 93-111, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:vrs:coecre:v:19:y:2016:i:3:p:93-111:n:5
    DOI: 10.1515/cer-2016-0022
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1515/cer-2016-0022
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1515/cer-2016-0022?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ritter, Jay R., 2005. "Economic growth and equity returns," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 13(5), pages 489-503, November.
    2. Javier Estrada, 2012. "Blinded by Growth," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 24(3), pages 19-25, September.
    3. Binswanger, Mathias, 2000. "Stock market booms and real economic activity: Is this time different?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 9(4), pages 387-415, October.
    4. Jay R. Ritter, 2012. "Is Economic Growth Good for Investors?," Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 24(3), pages 8-18, September.
    5. Alwyn Young, 1992. "A Tale of Two Cities: Factor Accumulation and Technical Change in Hong Kong and Singapore," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1992, Volume 7, pages 13-64, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Roger Ibbotson & Peng Chen, 2001. "Stock Market Returns in the Long Run: Participating in the Real Economy," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm206, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2002.
    7. Alwyn Young, 1995. "The Tyranny of Numbers: Confronting the Statistical Realities of the East Asian Growth Experience," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 110(3), pages 641-680.
    8. Binswanger, Mathias, 2004. "Stock returns and real activity in the G-7 countries: did the relationship change during the 1980s?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 237-252, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Jakob B. Madsen* & Md. Rabiul Islam, 2012. "The Anatomy of the Asian Take-off," Institutions and Economies (formerly known as International Journal of Institutions and Economies), Faculty of Economics and Administration, University of Malaya, vol. 4(2), pages 1-24, July.
    2. William R Kerr, 2018. "Heterogeneous Technology Diffusion and Ricardian Trade Patterns," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 32(1), pages 163-182.
    3. Zhou, Yixiao & Tyers, Rod, 2019. "Automation and inequality in China," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    4. Claessens, Constantijn A. & Djankov, Simeon & Joseph P. H. Fan & Lang, Larry H. P., 1998. "Diversification and efficiency of investment by East Asian corporations," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2033, The World Bank.
    5. Chi‐Wa Yuen, 1998. "The Fifth Asian Dragon: Sources Of Growth In Guangdong, 1979–1994," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 16(1), pages 1-11, January.
    6. David Jones, 1997. "Asian Values and the Constitutional Order of Contemporary Singapore," Constitutional Political Economy, Springer, vol. 8(4), pages 283-300, December.
    7. Amer Bisat, 1997. "Growth, Investment, and Savings in the Arab Economies," IMF Working Papers 1997/085, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Sarath Delpachitra & Pham Van Dai, 2012. "The Determinants of TFP Growth in Middle Income Economies in ASEAN: Implication of Financial Crises," International Journal of Business and Economics, School of Management Development, Feng Chia University, Taichung, Taiwan, vol. 11(1), pages 63-88, June.
    9. Timmer, Marcel P., 2002. "Climbing the Technology Ladder Too Fast? New Evidence on Comparative Productivity Performance in Asian Manufacturing," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 50-72, March.
    10. Timmer, Marcel P., 1999. "Climbing the Technology Ladder Too Fast? An International Comparison of Productivity in South and East- Asian Manufacturing, 1963-1993," Working Papers 99.2, Eindhoven Center for Innovation Studies.
    11. Sonobe, Tetsushi & Otsuka, Keijiro, 2001. "A new decomposition approach to growth accounting: derivation of the formula and its application to prewar Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-14, January.
    12. Charles R. Hulten, 2000. "Total Factor Productivity: A Short Biography," NBER Working Papers 7471, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Patalinghug, Epictetus, 2001. "A Review of the Components of the Medium-Term National Action Agenda for Productivity (MNAAP) 2000-2004," Research Paper Series RPS 2001-02, Philippine Institute for Development Studies.
    14. Li, Hongyi & Wei, Xiangdong & Xie, Danyang, 2009. "Competitiveness of the Hong Kong economy," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 573-586, September.
    15. Park, Jungsoo, 2012. "Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 114-127.
    16. Hiau Looi Kee, 2005. "Productivity or Endowments? Sectoral Evidence for Hong Kong's Aggregate Growth," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 51-81, March.
    17. Tsouma, Ekaterini, 2009. "Stock returns and economic activity in mature and emerging markets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(2), pages 668-685, May.
    18. Lee E. Ohanian & Paulina Restrepo-Echavarria & Mark L. J. Wright, 2018. "Bad Investments and Missed Opportunities? Postwar Capital Flows to Asia and Latin America," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 108(12), pages 3541-3582, December.
    19. Shu-Shiuan Lu, 2012. "East Asian growth experience revisited from the perspective of a neoclassical model," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 15(3), pages 359-376, July.
    20. Y. Wu, 1997. "Productivity & Efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese regional economies," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 97-18, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vrs:coecre:v:19:y:2016:i:3:p:93-111:n:5. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Peter Golla (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.sciendo.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.