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Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future

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  • Park, Jungsoo

Abstract

This study examines the importance of TFP growth in the long-term past and future economic growth of 12 Asian economies. We analyze the pattern of past growth based on a calculation of TFP growth, investigate the TFP dynamics by estimations of a TFP growth model, decompose the factors affecting TFP growth, and offer long-term projections of TFP growth. The main findings are as follows. First, results suggest that the growth accounting paradigm has shifted in the recent decade toward a productivity-based growth paradigm. Second, the catch-up effect is the major source of TFP growth in past decades, and the human capital contribution to TFP growth is gradually rising in Hong Kong, Korea, Singapore, and Taiwan in the most recent decade but is stagnated or weakened for other Asian economies. Third, the results project strong TFP growth for the two subperiods of 2010–2020 and 2020–2030 and thus suggest that the productivity-based growth will continue in the future long-term growth of the Asian economies.

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  • Park, Jungsoo, 2012. "Total factor productivity growth for 12 Asian economies: The past and the future," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 24(2), pages 114-127.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:japwor:v:24:y:2012:i:2:p:114-127
    DOI: 10.1016/j.japwor.2012.01.009
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Total factor productivity; Asian economies; Economic growth; Human capital; R&D; Long-term projection;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • O57 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Comparative Studies of Countries

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