IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vls/finstu/v25y2021i2p6-20.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Role Of Early Warning Systems In Predicting The Stock Price Crisis: What We Learnt From Grasshopper And Ants Fable

Author

Listed:
  • HABIBI, Reza

    (Iran Banking Institute, Central Bank of Iran.)

Abstract

Early warning systems are too important tools in predicting the crisis in financial institutions say banks and stock markets. A consequence of crashes in a specified stock or stock market is financial crisis. This paper considers designing an early warning system based on random walk theory and maximal inequality. First, mathematical tools are presented, and the early warning system is designed, then some real data sets are analysed. The performance of system is evaluated by some different criteria. After it, using a dynamic programming approach, a modified version of mentioned early warning system is proposed. Finally, a conclusion section is given.

Suggested Citation

  • HABIBI, Reza, 2021. "Role Of Early Warning Systems In Predicting The Stock Price Crisis: What We Learnt From Grasshopper And Ants Fable," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 25(2), pages 6-20, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:25:y:2021:i:2:p:6-20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icfm.ro/RePEc/vls/vls_pdf/vol25i2p6-20.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stefanie Walter & Thomas Willett, 2012. "Delaying the inevitable: A political economy approach to currency defenses and depreciation," Review of International Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 114-139.
    2. Bjork, Tomas, 2009. "Arbitrage Theory in Continuous Time," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 3, number 9780199574742.
    3. Ivashina, Victoria & Scharfstein, David, 2010. "Bank lending during the financial crisis of 2008," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 97(3), pages 319-338, September.
    4. Rupa Duttagupta & Mr. Paul Cashin, 2008. "The Anatomy of Banking Crises," IMF Working Papers 2008/093, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Männasoo, Kadri & Mayes, David G., 2009. "Explaining bank distress in Eastern European transition economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(2), pages 244-253, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
    2. Grodecka-Messi, Anna & Kenny, Seán & Ögren, Anders, 2021. "Predictors of bank distress: The 1907 crisis in Sweden," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
    3. Firano, Zakaria & Filali adib, Fatine, 2018. "Prevision des difficultes bancaires : un modele d'alerte precoce pour le cas du maroc [Prediction of banking difficulties: an early warning model for moroccan banking system]," MPRA Paper 95165, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Barrell, Ray & Davis, E. Philip & Karim, Dilruba & Liadze, Iana, 2010. "Bank regulation, property prices and early warning systems for banking crises in OECD countries," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 2255-2264, September.
    5. Ho, Po-Hsin & Huang, Chia-Wei & Lin, Chih-Yung & Yen, Ju-Fang, 2016. "CEO overconfidence and financial crisis: Evidence from bank lending and leverage," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 120(1), pages 194-209.
    6. Tamadonejad, Alireza & Abdul-Majid, Mariani & Rahman, aisyah & jusoh, mansor & Tabandeh, Razieh, 2016. "Early Warning Systems for Banking Crises: Political and Economic Stability," Jurnal Ekonomi Malaysia, Faculty of Economics and Business, Universiti Kebangsaan Malaysia, vol. 50(2), pages 31-38.
    7. Caggiano, Giovanni & Calice, Pietro & Leonida, Leone, 2014. "Early warning systems and systemic banking crises in low income countries: A multinomial logit approach," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 258-269.
    8. Baselga-Pascual, Laura & Trujillo-Ponce, Antonio & Cardone-Riportella, Clara, 2015. "Factors influencing bank risk in Europe: Evidence from the financial crisis," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 138-166.
    9. Laidroo, Laivi & Männasoo, Kadri, 2017. "Do credit commitments compromise credit quality?," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 303-317.
    10. Song, Wei-Ling & Uzmanoglu, Cihan, 2016. "TARP announcement, bank health, and borrowers’ credit risk," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 22-32.
    11. Daniel Belton & Leonardo Gambacorta & Sotirios Kokas & Raoul Minetti, 2023. "Foreign Banks, Liquidity Shocks, and Credit Stability," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(1), pages 131-169.
    12. Paolo Emilio Mistrulli & Valerio Vacca, 2015. "Social capital and the cost of credit: evidence from a crisis," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1009, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    13. Will Hicks, 2020. "Pseudo-Hermiticity, Martingale Processes and Non-Arbitrage Pricing," Papers 2009.00360, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2021.
    14. Lee, Seung Jung & Liu, Lucy Qian & Stebunovs, Viktors, 2022. "Risk-taking spillovers of U.S. monetary policy in the global market for U.S. dollar corporate loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 138(C).
    15. Nicole Boyson & Jean Helwege & Jan Jindra, 2014. "Crises, Liquidity Shocks, and Fire Sales at Commercial Banks," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 43(4), pages 857-884, December.
    16. Christopher F Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Bing Xu, 2017. "The Impact of Uncertainty on Financial Institutions," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 939, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 20 Sep 2018.
    17. Petr Korab & Jitka Pomenkova, 2017. "Credit Rationing in Greece During and After the Financial Crisis," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 67(2), pages 119-139, April.
    18. Matthew Rognlie & Andrei Shleifer & Alp Simsek, 2018. "Investment Hangover and the Great Recession," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(2), pages 113-153, April.
    19. Custódio, Cláudia & Ferreira, Miguel A. & Laureano, Luís, 2013. "Why are US firms using more short-term debt?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(1), pages 182-212.
    20. Ken B. Cyree & Mark D. Griffiths & Drew B. Winters, 2017. "Implications of a TAF program stigma for lenders: the case of publicly traded banks versus privately held banks," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 545-567, August.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Crash indicator; Dynamic programming; Early warning system; Stock market; Variance ratio;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:25:y:2021:i:2:p:6-20. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniel Mateescu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfiarro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.