IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/vls/finstu/v20y2016i2p6-24.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Who Drives Whom? Investigating The Relationship Between The Major Stock Markets

Author

Listed:
  • EVRIM MANDACI, Pinar

    (Department of Business Administration, Dokuz Eylul University, Turkey)

  • CAGLI, Efe Caglar

    (Department of Business Administration, Dokuz Eylul University, Turkey)

Abstract

In this paper we examine the relationships between the major stock markets including the U.S., the U.K, Japan, Germany and France covering a long period from July 1987 to December 2015 and employing Carrion-i-Silvestre et al. (2009) unit root tests and Maki (2012) cointegration test, both of which considering structural breaks. Additionally, we estimate the long-run elasticities of the co-integrating relationships by applying dynamic ordinary least squares algorithm of Stock and Watson (1993). And lastly, we investigate short-run linkages among stock markets using the Granger causality test across the subsamples determined according to the breakpoints. Our results indicate that these markets are mostly co-integrated. Among them only the Japanese market is mildly segmented proving a diversification benefit. Additionally, we observe a gradually decrease in the short-run relationship between these markets.

Suggested Citation

  • EVRIM MANDACI, Pinar & CAGLI, Efe Caglar, 2016. "Who Drives Whom? Investigating The Relationship Between The Major Stock Markets," Studii Financiare (Financial Studies), Centre of Financial and Monetary Research "Victor Slavescu", vol. 20(2), pages 6-24.
    • Handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:20:y:2016:i:2:p:6-24
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.icfm.ro/RePEc/vls/vls_pdf/vol20i2p6-24.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1754-1792, December.
    2. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    3. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2005. "Cointegration Of Stock Markets Between New Zealand, Australia And The G7 Economies: Searching For Co‐Movement Under Structural Change," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 231-247, September.
    4. Johansen, Soren & Juselius, Katarina, 1990. "Maximum Likelihood Estimation and Inference on Cointegration--With Applications to the Demand for Money," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 52(2), pages 169-210, May.
    5. Patricia Fraser & Oluwatobi Oyefeso, 2005. "US, UK and European Stock Market Integration," Journal of Business Finance & Accounting, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 32(1-2), pages 161-181.
    6. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
    7. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    8. Angelos Kanas, 1998. "Linkages between the US and European equity markets: further evidence from cointegration tests," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 607-614.
    9. Richards, Anthony J., 1995. "Comovements in national stock market returns: Evidence of predictability, but not cointegration," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(3), pages 631-654, December.
    10. Maki, Daiki, 2012. "Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2011-2015.
    11. Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1993. "A Simple Estimator of Cointegrating Vectors in Higher Order Integrated Systems," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 783-820, July.
    12. Robin L. Lumsdaine & David H. Papell, 1997. "Multiple Trend Breaks And The Unit-Root Hypothesis," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 79(2), pages 212-218, May.
    13. Arshanapalli, Bala & Doukas, John, 1993. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from the pre- and post-October 1987 period," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 193-208, February.
    14. Baele, Lieven, 2005. "Volatility Spillover Effects in European Equity Markets," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(2), pages 373-401, June.
    15. George Kapetanios, 2005. "Unit‐root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 123-133, January.
    16. Taylor, Mark P & Tonks, Ian, 1989. "The Internationalisation of Stock Markets and the Abolition of U.K. Exchange Control," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(2), pages 332-336, May.
    17. Geert Bekaert & Campbell R. Harvey & Angela Ng, 2005. "Market Integration and Contagion," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 78(1), pages 39-70, January.
    18. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
    19. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    20. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    21. Kasa, Kenneth, 1992. "Common stochastic trends in international stock markets," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 95-124, February.
    22. Jian Yang & Moosa M. Khan & Lucille Pointer, 2003. "Increasing Integration Between the United States and Other International Stock Markets? : A Recursive Cointegration Analysis," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(6), pages 39-53, November.
    23. Juan Angel Lafuente & Javier Ordonez, 2009. "The effect of the EMU on short and long-run stock market dynamics: new evidence on financial integration," International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 1(1), pages 75-95.
    24. Paresh Kumar Narayan & Russell Smyth, 2004. "Modelling the linkages between the Australian and G7 stock markets: common stochastic trends and regime shifts," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 991-1004.
    25. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Yang, Chin-Wei & Hu, John Wei-Shan, 2000. "Causality and cointegration of stock markets among the United States, Japan and the South China Growth Triangle," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 281-297.
    26. Corhay, A. & Tourani Rad, A. & Urbain, J. -P., 1993. "Common stochastic trends in European stock markets," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 385-390.
    27. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    28. George Kapetanios, 2005. "Unit‐root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 123-133, January.
    29. Granger, C W J, 1969. "Investigating Causal Relations by Econometric Models and Cross-Spectral Methods," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 37(3), pages 424-438, July.
    30. Johansen, Soren, 1991. "Estimation and Hypothesis Testing of Cointegration Vectors in Gaussian Vector Autoregressive Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(6), pages 1551-1580, November.
    31. Bierens, Herman J., 1997. "Nonparametric cointegration analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 77(2), pages 379-404, April.
    32. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003. "Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
    33. Ilhan Meric & Gulser Meric, 1997. "Co-Movements of European Equity Markets Before and After the 1987 Crash," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 1(2), pages 137-152, June.
    34. Phillips, Peter C B & Ouliaris, S, 1990. "Asymptotic Properties of Residual Based Tests for Cointegration," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 165-193, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eleni Constantinou & Avo Kazandjian & Georgios P. Kouretas & Vera Tahmazian, 2008. "Common Stochastic Trends Among The Cyprus Stock Exchange And The Ase, Lse And Nyse," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 60(4), pages 327-349, October.
    2. Chien, Mei-Se & Lee, Chien-Chiang & Hu, Te-Chung & Hu, Hui-Ting, 2015. "Dynamic Asian stock market convergence: Evidence from dynamic cointegration analysis among China and ASEAN-5," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 84-98.
    3. Giorgio Canarella & Stephen M. Miller & Stephen K. Pollard, 2008. "Dynamic Stock Market Interactions between the Canadian, Mexican, and the United States Markets: The NAFTA Experience," Working papers 2008-49, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
    4. Kasman Adnan & Vardar Gülin & Okan Berna & Aksoy Gökçe, 2009. "The Turkish Stock Market Integration with Developed and Emerging Countries' Stock Markets: Evidence from Cointegration Tests with and without Regime Shifts," Review of Middle East Economics and Finance, De Gruyter, vol. 5(1), pages 24-49, May.
    5. Diamandis, Panayiotis F., 2009. "International stock market linkages: Evidence from Latin America," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 13-30.
    6. Cumhur ÞAHÝN & Hüseyin ALTAY, 2016. "Examination of the Relationship between Turkey’s Credit Default Swap (CDS) Points and Unemployment," Eurasian Business & Economics Journal, Eurasian Academy Of Sciences, vol. 4(4), pages 52-67, January.
    7. Chiappini, Raphaël & Jégourel, Yves & Raymond, Paul, 2019. "Towards a worldwide integrated market? New evidence on the dynamics of U.S., European and Asian natural gas prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 81(C), pages 545-565.
    8. Paul Gallimore & J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Long-term Cointegrative and Short-term Causal Relations among U.S. Real Estate Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Global Social Science Institute, vol. 17(3), pages 359-394.
    9. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    10. Nafeesa Yunus & Peggy Swanson, 2007. "Modelling Linkages between US and Asia‐Pacific Securitized Property Markets," Journal of Property Research, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(2), pages 95-122.
    11. Katircioğlu, Salih Turan, 2014. "Testing the tourism-induced EKC hypothesis: The case of Singapore," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 383-391.
    12. Natalya KETENCİ & Ebru Tomris AYDOĞAN, 2019. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Turkey in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    13. Lucey, Brian M. & Voronkova, Svitlana, 2008. "Russian equity market linkages before and after the 1998 crisis: Evidence from stochastic and regime-switching cointegration tests," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(8), pages 1303-1324, December.
    14. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Vedat KAYA, 2017. "Eğitimin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: PISA Katılımcıları Üzerinde Bir Uygulama (1990-2014)," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(33).
    15. Chang, Tsangyao & Caudill, Steven B., 2006. "A note on the long-run benefits from international equity diversification for a Taiwan investor diversifying in the US equity market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 15(1), pages 57-67.
    16. Paul Gallimore & J. Andrew Hansz & Wikrom Prombutr & Ying Zhang, 2014. "Long-term Cointegrative and Short-term Causal Relations among U.S. Real Estate Sectors," International Real Estate Review, Asian Real Estate Society, vol. 17(3), pages 359-394.
    17. Brittle, Shane, 2009. "Ricardian Equivalence and the Efficacy of Fiscal Policy in Australia," Economics Working Papers wp09-10, School of Economics, University of Wollongong, NSW, Australia.
    18. Esra N. Kılcı & Burcu Kıran Baygın, 2019. "Analysis of the Relationship between Real Effective Exchange Rate, Common Equity Tier 1 Ratio and Return on Equity: Evidence from Turkey," Alphanumeric Journal, Bahadir Fatih Yildirim, vol. 7(2), pages 319-332, December.
    19. Tarlok Singh, 2017. "Are Current Account Deficits in the OECD Countries Sustainable? Robust Evidence from Time-Series Estimators," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(1), pages 29-64, January.
    20. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The bilateral trade flows of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1369-1398, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock Market; Diversification; Cointegration; Structural Breaks; Financial Crisis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:vls:finstu:v:20:y:2016:i:2:p:6-24. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Daniel Mateescu (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/cfiarro.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.