IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/sos/sosjrn/190401.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Determinants of Economic Growth in Turkey in the Presence of Structural Breaks

Author

Listed:
  • Natalya KETENCİ
  • Ebru Tomris AYDOĞAN

Abstract

Sustainable economic growth is defined as a continuous increase in environmentally adjusted net domestic product (Bartelmus, 1994). This study investigates the role of natural gas consumption and trade openness in relation with the economic growth of Turkey for the period 1977-2017 throughout which Turkey underwent several political and economic shocks. To accomplish this, the paper employs the Kejriwal and Perron (2010) structural break test to investigate the relationship between economic growth and its determinants in the presence of structural shifts. By demonstrating the impacts of variables on economic growth through different sub-regimes, the outcomes underline the importance of structural breaks in estimations.

Suggested Citation

  • Natalya KETENCİ & Ebru Tomris AYDOĞAN, 2019. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Turkey in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    • Handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:190401
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dergipark.gov.tr/download/article-file/832940
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carrion-i-Silvestre, Josep Lluís & Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Gls-Based Unit Root Tests With Multiple Structural Breaks Under Both The Null And The Alternative Hypotheses," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(6), pages 1754-1792, December.
    2. Kejriwal, Mohitosh & Perron, Pierre, 2010. "Testing for Multiple Structural Changes in Cointegrated Regression Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 28(4), pages 503-522.
    3. Balitskiy, Sergey & Bilan, Yuriy & Strielkowski, Wadim & Štreimikienė, Dalia, 2016. "Energy efficiency and natural gas consumption in the context of economic development in the European Union," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 156-168.
    4. Pierre Perron & Serena Ng, 1996. "Useful Modifications to some Unit Root Tests with Dependent Errors and their Local Asymptotic Properties," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 63(3), pages 435-463.
    5. Nela Vlahinic-Dizdarevic & Sasa Zikovic, 2010. "The role of energy in economic growth: the case of Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics and Business, vol. 28(1), pages 35-60.
    6. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J., "undated". "Level Shifts and Purchasing Power Parity," Instructional Stata datasets for econometrics levshift, Boston College Department of Economics.
    7. Lee, Chien-Chiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2005. "Structural breaks, energy consumption, and economic growth revisited: Evidence from Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 857-872, November.
    8. Payne, James E., 2009. "On the dynamics of energy consumption and output in the US," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 575-577, April.
    9. Farhani, Sahbi & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Arouri, Mohamed & Teulon, Frédéric, 2014. "The role of natural gas consumption and trade in Tunisia's output," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 677-684.
    10. Zhang, Xing-Ping & Cheng, Xiao-Mei, 2009. "Energy consumption, carbon emissions, and economic growth in China," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(10), pages 2706-2712, August.
    11. Paul, Shyamal & Bhattacharya, Rabindra N., 2004. "Causality between energy consumption and economic growth in India: a note on conflicting results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 977-983, November.
    12. Hatemi, A. & Irandoust, M., 2005. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Sweden: A Leveraged Bootstrap Approach, 1965-2000," International Journal of Applied Econometrics and Quantitative Studies, Euro-American Association of Economic Development, vol. 2(4), pages 87-98.
    13. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-057 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Belke, Ansgar & Dobnik, Frauke & Dreger, Christian, 2011. "Energy consumption and economic growth: New insights into the cointegration relationship," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 782-789, September.
    15. Shahbaz, Muhammad & Lean, Hooi Hooi & Farooq, Abdul, 2013. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth in Pakistan," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 87-94.
    16. Cheng, Benjamin S. & Lai, Tin Wei, 1997. "An investigation of co-integration and causality between energy consumption and economic activity in Taiwan," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 435-444, October.
    17. Thoma, Mark, 2004. "Electrical energy usage over the business cycle," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 26(3), pages 463-485, May.
    18. Sadorsky, Perry, 2012. "Energy consumption, output and trade in South America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(2), pages 476-488.
    19. Zivot, Eric & Andrews, Donald W K, 2002. "Further Evidence on the Great Crash, the Oil-Price Shock, and the Unit-Root Hypothesis," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 25-44, January.
    20. Zamani, Mehrzad, 2007. "Energy consumption and economic activities in Iran," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1135-1140, November.
    21. Solarin, Sakiru Adebola & Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2015. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: The role of foreign direct investment, capital formation and trade openness in Malaysia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 835-845.
    22. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2009. "Energy consumption and economic growth: Evidence from the Commonwealth of Independent States," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 641-647, September.
    23. Hondroyiannis, George & Lolos, Sarantis & Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2002. "Energy consumption and economic growth: assessing the evidence from Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 24(4), pages 319-336, July.
    24. Yu, Eden S. H. & Hwang, Been-Kwei, 1984. "The relationship between energy and GNP : Further results," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 186-190, July.
    25. Maki, Daiki, 2012. "Tests for cointegration allowing for an unknown number of breaks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(5), pages 2011-2015.
    26. Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
    27. Unknown, 2016. "Energy for Sustainable Development," Conference Proceedings 253270, Guru Arjan Dev Institute of Development Studies (IDSAsr).
    28. Elliott, Graham & Rothenberg, Thomas J & Stock, James H, 1996. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 64(4), pages 813-836, July.
    29. Mohsen Mehrara, 2007. "Energy‐GDP relationship for oil‐exporting countries: Iran, Kuwait and Saudi Arabia," OPEC Energy Review, Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, vol. 31(1), pages 1-16, March.
    30. George Kapetanios, 2005. "Unit‐root testing against the alternative hypothesis of up to m structural breaks," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(1), pages 123-133, January.
    31. Vogelsang, Timothy J & Perron, Pierre, 1998. "Additional Tests for a Unit Root Allowing for a Break in the Trend Function at an Unknown Time," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 39(4), pages 1073-1100, November.
    32. Sebri, Maamar & Ben-Salha, Ousama, 2014. "On the causal dynamics between economic growth, renewable energy consumption, CO2 emissions and trade openness: Fresh evidence from BRICS countries," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 14-23.
    33. Natalya KETENCİ & Ebru Tomris AYDOĞAN, 2019. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Turkey in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).
    34. Perron, Pierre & Yabu, Tomoyoshi, 2009. "Testing for Shifts in Trend With an Integrated or Stationary Noise Component," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(3), pages 369-396.
    35. Acaravici, Ali, 2010. "Structural Breaks, Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence from Turkey," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 140-154, July.
    36. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
    37. Abdulnasser Hatemi-J, 2008. "Tests for cointegration with two unknown regime shifts with an application to financial market integration," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 35(3), pages 497-505, November.
    38. Kim, Dukpa & Perron, Pierre, 2009. "Unit root tests allowing for a break in the trend function at an unknown time under both the null and alternative hypotheses," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 148(1), pages 1-13, January.
    39. Erdal, Gülistan & Erdal, Hilmi & Esengün, Kemal, 2008. "The causality between energy consumption and economic growth in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 3838-3842, October.
    40. repec:zbw:rwirep:0190 is not listed on IDEAS
    41. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    42. Masih, Abul M. M. & Masih, Rumi, 1997. "On the temporal causal relationship between energy consumption, real income, and prices: Some new evidence from Asian-energy dependent NICs Based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error-correctio," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 19(4), pages 417-440, August.
    43. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
    44. Gregory, Allan W & Hansen, Bruce E, 1996. "Tests for Cointegration in Models with Regime and Trend Shifts," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 58(3), pages 555-560, August.
    45. Sari, Ramazan & Soytas, Ugur, 2007. "The growth of income and energy consumption in six developing countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(2), pages 889-898, February.
    46. Mustafa SAATC & Yasemin DUMRUL, 2013. "The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Structural Break Analysis For Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 20-29.
    47. Phung Thanh Binh, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Vietnam: Threshold Cointegration and Causality Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 1(1), pages 1-17, June.
    48. Andrews, Donald W K & Ploberger, Werner, 1994. "Optimal Tests When a Nuisance Parameter Is Present Only under the Alternative," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(6), pages 1383-1414, November.
    49. Perron, Pierre, 1997. "Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
    50. Apergis, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2010. "Natural gas consumption and economic growth: A panel investigation of 67 countries," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 87(8), pages 2759-2763, August.
    51. Gregory, Allan W. & Hansen, Bruce E., 1996. "Residual-based tests for cointegration in models with regime shifts," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 70(1), pages 99-126, January.
    52. Soytas, Ugur & Sari, Ramazan, 2006. "Energy consumption and income in G-7 countries," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 28(7), pages 739-750, October.
    53. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The bilateral trade flows of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1369-1398, December.
    54. Ali Acaravci & Ilhan Ozturk, 2012. "Electricity Consumption and Economic Growth Nexus: A Multivariate Analysis for Turkey," The AMFITEATRU ECONOMIC journal, Academy of Economic Studies - Bucharest, Romania, vol. 14(31), pages 246-257, February.
    55. Souhila EDDRIEF-CHERFI & Baghdad KOURBALI, 2012. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Algeria: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 2(4), pages 238-249.
    56. Kaplan, Muhittin & Ozturk, Ilhan & Kalyoncu, Huseyin, 2011. "Energy Consumption and Economic Growth in Turkey: Cointegration and Causality Analysis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 31-41, June.
    57. Yu, Eden S. H. & Jin, Jang C., 1992. "Cointegration tests of energy consumption, income, and employment," Resources and Energy, Elsevier, vol. 14(3), pages 259-266, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Natalya KETENCİ & Ebru Tomris AYDOĞAN, 2019. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Turkey in the Presence of Structural Breaks," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 27(42).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mustafa SAATC & Yasemin DUMRUL, 2013. "The Relationship Between Energy Consumption and Economic Growth: Evidence From A Structural Break Analysis For Turkey," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 3(1), pages 20-29.
    2. Natalya Ketenci, 2016. "The bilateral trade flows of the EU in the presence of structural breaks," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(4), pages 1369-1398, December.
    3. Ömer YALÇINKAYA & Vedat KAYA, 2017. "Eğitimin Ekonomik Büyüme Üzerindeki Etkileri: PISA Katılımcıları Üzerinde Bir Uygulama (1990-2014)," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(33).
    4. Ebru Tomris AYDOĞAN & Çağrı Levent USLU & Natalya KETENCİ, 2017. "Determinants of Economic Growth in Emerging Countries Under Structural Breaks Consideration," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 25(33).
    5. Ketenci, Natalya, 2015. "Capital mobility in Russia," Russian Journal of Economics, Elsevier, vol. 1(4), pages 386-403.
    6. Natalya Ketenci & Vasudeva N. R. Murthy, 2018. "Some determinants of life expectancy in the United States: results from cointegration tests under structural breaks," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 42(3), pages 508-525, July.
    7. Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "Is technology still a major driver of health expenditure in the United States? Evidence from cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 29-50, March.
    8. Cosimo Magazzino, 2015. "Energy consumption and GDP in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis," Environment, Development and Sustainability: A Multidisciplinary Approach to the Theory and Practice of Sustainable Development, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 137-153, February.
    9. Ogali, Oscar I.O. & Okoro, Emeka E. & Olafuyi, Saburi G., 2023. "Assessing consensus on nexus between natural gas consumption and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    10. Farzana Sharmin & Mohammed Robayet Khan & Mohammed Robayet Khan, 2016. "A Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Energy Prices and Economic Growth in Africa," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 6(3), pages 477-494.
    11. Sofien, Tiba & Omri, Anis, 2016. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy variables, environment and economic growth," MPRA Paper 82555, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 14 Sep 2016.
    12. Magazzino, Cosimo, 2011. "Energy consumption and aggregate income in Italy: cointegration and causality analysis," MPRA Paper 28494, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Ozturk, Ilhan, 2010. "A literature survey on energy-growth nexus," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 340-349, January.
    14. Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Tiba, Sofien & Omri, Anis, 2017. "Literature survey on the relationships between energy, environment and economic growth," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 1129-1146.
    16. Esteve, Vicente & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2012. "Is there an environmental Kuznets curve for Spain? Fresh evidence from old data," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 2696-2703.
    17. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of US stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 04/13, Instituto Universitario de Análisis Económico y Social.
    18. Vicente Esteve & Manuel Navarro-Ibáñez & María A. Prats, 2013. "The present value model of U.S. stock prices revisited: long-run evidence with structural breaks, 1871-2010," Working Papers 1305, Department of Applied Economics II, Universidad de Valencia.
    19. Shahbaz, Muhammad, 2017. "Current Issues in Time-Series Analysis for the Energy-Growth Nexus; Asymmetries and Nonlinearities Case Study: Pakistan," MPRA Paper 82221, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised 19 Oct 2017.
    20. Vicente Esteve, 2004. "Política fiscal y productividad del trabajo en la economía española: un análisis de series temporales," Revista de Analisis Economico – Economic Analysis Review, Universidad Alberto Hurtado/School of Economics and Business, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, June.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic Growth; Natural Gas Consumption; Energy Use; Cointegration; Structural Breaks; Turkey.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • O11 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Macroeconomic Analyses of Economic Development
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sos:sosjrn:190401. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Aysen Sivrikaya (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.sosyoekonomijournal.org/home.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.