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Preference Uncertainty, Preference Learning, and Paired Comparison Experiments

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  • David C. Kingsley
  • Thomas C. Brown

Abstract

Results from paired comparison experiments suggest that as respondents progress through a sequence of binary choices they become more consistent, apparently fine-tuning their preferences. Consistency may be indicated by the variance of the estimated valuation distribution measured by the error term in the random utility model. A significant reduction in the variance is shown to be consistent with a model of preference uncertainty allowing for preference learning. Respondents become more adept at discriminating among items as they gain experience considering and comparing them, suggesting that methods allowing for such experience may obtain more well founded values.

Suggested Citation

  • David C. Kingsley & Thomas C. Brown, 2010. "Preference Uncertainty, Preference Learning, and Paired Comparison Experiments," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 86(3).
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:landec:v:86:y:2010:iii:1:p530-544
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Thunström, Linda & Nordström, Jonas & Shogren, Jason F., 2015. "Certainty and overconfidence in future preferences for food," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 101-113.
    2. Bahamonde-Birke, Francisco J., 2018. "Estimating the reference frame: A smooth twice-differentiable utility function for non-compensatory loss-averse decision-making," Journal of choice modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 71-81.
    3. LaRiviere, Jacob & Czajkowski, Mikołaj & Hanley, Nick & Aanesen, Margrethe & Falk-Petersen, Jannike & Tinch, Dugald, 2014. "The value of familiarity: Effects of knowledge and objective signals on willingness to pay for a public good," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 68(2), pages 376-389.
    4. Marek Kapera, 2022. "Learning own preferences through consumption," KAE Working Papers 2022-074, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis.
    5. Kingsley, David C. & Brown, Thomas C., 2013. "Value learning and the willingness to accept–willingness to pay disparity," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 120(3), pages 473-476.
    6. Thijs Dekker & Paul Koster & Roy Brouwer, 2014. "Changing with the Tide: Semiparametric Estimation of Preference Dynamics," Land Economics, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 90(4), pages 717-745.
    7. Campbell, Danny & Boeri, Marco & Doherty, Edel & George Hutchinson, W., 2015. "Learning, fatigue and preference formation in discrete choice experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 345-363.

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C25 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions; Probabilities
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness

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