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What Can Ex-Participants Reveal about a Program’s Impact?

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  • Martin Ravallion
  • Emanuela Galasso
  • Teodoro Lazo
  • Ernesto Philipp

Abstract

We propose a method for estimating the mean impact of an assigned social program when it is not feasible to do a pre-intervention baseline survey but it is feasible to track ex-participants. In our triple-difference estimator, measured outcome changes are compared between continuing participants and matched ex-participants, after netting out the outcome changes for a matched comparison group who never participated. With sufficient followup observations one can test the joint conditions required for correctly identifying the gains to current participants. We apply the method to a workfare program in Argentina. Significant impacts on participants’ current incomes are revealed.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Ravallion & Emanuela Galasso & Teodoro Lazo & Ernesto Philipp, 2005. "What Can Ex-Participants Reveal about a Program’s Impact?," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 40(1).
    • Handle: RePEc:uwp:jhriss:v:40:y:2005:i:1:p208-230
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. James J. Heckman & Hidehiko Ichimura & Petra E. Todd, 1997. "Matching As An Econometric Evaluation Estimator: Evidence from Evaluating a Job Training Programme," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 64(4), pages 605-654.
    2. Ashenfelter, Orley C, 1978. "Estimating the Effect of Training Programs on Earnings," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 60(1), pages 47-57, February.
    3. Ravallion, Martin & Galasso, Emanuela & Lazo, Teodoro & Philipp, Ernesto, 2001. "Do workfare participants recover quickly from retrenchment?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2672, The World Bank.
    4. Ravallion, Martin, 2000. "Monitoring Targeting Performance When Decentralized Allocations to the Poor Are Unobserved," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 14(2), pages 331-345, May.
    5. Jalan, Jyotsna & Ravallion, Martin, 1998. "Are there dynamic gains from a poor-area development program?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 65-85, January.
    6. Heckman, James J & Smith, Jeffrey A, 1999. "The Pre-programme Earnings Dip and the Determinants of Participation in a Social Programme. Implications for Simple Programme Evaluation Strategies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 109(457), pages 313-348, July.
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