IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/usm/journl/aamjaf012s1_159-182.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Alteration of Risk in Asian Bond Markets during and after Mortgage Crisis: Evidence from Value at Risk (VaR) Analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Samet Günay

    (Finance Department, American University of the Middle East, Egaila 15453, Kuwait)

Abstract

The bond market is an important source of corporate and national finance. In this study, we analyse the risk level of 10-year government bond yields of four leading Asian countries (South Korea, Japan, Malaysia and Singapore) for two different time intervals: during the period of the mortgage crisis, and the recovery. Risk measurement is conducted via Value at Risk (VaR) analysis, with models (GARCH (1.1) and FIGARCH (1.d.1)) in order to consider changes in variance over time. We also examine the credibility of VaR analysis via the Kupiec LR and DQ tests. According to the results, the highest risk level is seen in the Japan bond market for both periods. Another considerable implication is the significantly rising risk of the Japan bond market, even after the transition from crisis to recovery period. In addition, it is shown that the risk in the Malaysia bond market decreases during the recovery period. However, Kupiec LR and DQ backtesting results demonstrate that this finding is unverifiable.

Suggested Citation

  • Samet Günay, 2016. "Alteration of Risk in Asian Bond Markets during and after Mortgage Crisis: Evidence from Value at Risk (VaR) Analysis," Asian Academy of Management Journal of Accounting and Finance (AAMJAF), Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia, vol. 12(Suppl. 1), pages 159–182-1.
    • Handle: RePEc:usm:journl:aamjaf012s1_159-182
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://web.usm.my/journal/aamjaf/vol%2012-s-2016/aamjaf120s16_07.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Keith Kuester & Stefan Mittnik & Marc S. Paolella, 2006. "Value-at-Risk Prediction: A Comparison of Alternative Strategies," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 4(1), pages 53-89.
    2. Sayuri SHIRAI, 2009. "The Impact of the US Subprime Mortgage Crisis on the World and East Asia: Through Analyses of Cross-border Capital Movements," Working Papers d013, Economic Research Institute for ASEAN and East Asia (ERIA).
    3. Chien-Chung Nieh & Chao-Hsiang Yang & Yu-Sheng Kao, 2012. "Who has more influence on Asian stock markets around the subprime mortgage crisis -- the US or China?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 329-335, March.
    4. Rafaqet Ali & Muhammad Afzal, 2012. "Impact of global financial crisis on stock markets: Evidence from Pakistan and India," E3 Journal of Business Management and Economics., E3 Journals, vol. 3(7), pages 275-282.
    5. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    6. Baillie, Richard T. & Bollerslev, Tim & Mikkelsen, Hans Ole, 1996. "Fractionally integrated generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 3-30, September.
    7. Shirai, Sayuri, 2009. "The Impact of the US Subprime Mortgage Crisis on the World and East Asia," MPRA Paper 14722, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. James W. Taylor, 2008. "Estimating Value at Risk and Expected Shortfall Using Expectiles," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 6(2), pages 231-252, Spring.
    9. Azis, Iwan J. & Mitra, Sabyasachi & Baluga, Anthony & Dime, Roselle, 2013. "The Threat of Financial Contagion to Emerging Asia’s Local Bond Markets: Spillovers from Global Crises," Working Papers on Regional Economic Integration 106, Asian Development Bank.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Samet Gunay & Bojan Georgievski, 2018. "Effectiveness of Interest Rate Policy of the Fed in Management of Subprime Mortgage Crisis," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 11(1), pages 1-11, February.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stéphane Goutte & David Guerreiro & Bilel Sanhaji & Sophie Saglio & Julien Chevallier, 2019. "International Financial Markets," Post-Print halshs-02183053, HAL.
    2. Alex Huang, 2013. "Value at risk estimation by quantile regression and kernel estimator," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(2), pages 225-251, August.
    3. Huang, Alex YiHou & Peng, Sheng-Pen & Li, Fangjhy & Ke, Ching-Jie, 2011. "Volatility forecasting of exchange rate by quantile regression," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 20(4), pages 591-606, October.
    4. Berger, Theo & Gençay, Ramazan, 2018. "Improving daily Value-at-Risk forecasts: The relevance of short-run volatility for regulatory quality assessment," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 30-46.
    5. Bayer, Sebastian, 2018. "Combining Value-at-Risk forecasts using penalized quantile regressions," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 8(C), pages 56-77.
    6. Slim, Skander & Koubaa, Yosra & BenSaïda, Ahmed, 2017. "Value-at-Risk under Lévy GARCH models: Evidence from global stock markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 30-53.
    7. Nieto, Maria Rosa & Ruiz, Esther, 2016. "Frontiers in VaR forecasting and backtesting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 475-501.
    8. Gery Geenens & Richard Dunn, 2017. "A nonparametric copula approach to conditional Value-at-Risk," Papers 1712.05527, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2019.
    9. Peng, Wei & Hu, Shichao & Chen, Wang & Zeng, Yu-feng & Yang, Lu, 2019. "Modeling the joint dynamic value at risk of the volatility index, oil price, and exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 137-149.
    10. Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos & Dent, Pamela, 2013. "Forecasting value-at-risk and expected shortfall using fractionally integrated models of conditional volatility: International evidence," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 21-33.
    11. Timotheos Angelidis & Stavros Degiannakis, 2007. "Backtesting VaR Models: An Expected Shortfall Approach," Working Papers 0701, University of Crete, Department of Economics.
    12. Faisal Khan & Saif-Ur-Rehman Khan & Hashim Khan, 2016. "Pricing of Risk, Various Volatility Dynamics and Macroeconomic Exposure of Firm Returns: New Evidence on Age Effect," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 6(2), pages 551-561.
    13. Angelidis, Timotheos & Degiannakis, Stavros, 2007. "Backtesting VaR Models: A Τwo-Stage Procedure," MPRA Paper 96327, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Bei, Shuhua & Yang, Aijun & Pei, Haotian & Si, Xiaoli, 2023. "Price Risk Analysis using GARCH Family Models: Evidence from Shanghai Crude Oil Futures Market," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 125(C).
    15. Louzis, Dimitrios P. & Xanthopoulos-Sisinis, Spyros & Refenes, Apostolos P., 2011. "Are realized volatility models good candidates for alternative Value at Risk prediction strategies?," MPRA Paper 30364, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Andrea BUCCI, 2017. "Forecasting Realized Volatility A Review," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 8(2), pages 94-138.
    17. Stavros Degiannakis & Pamela Dent & Christos Floros, 2014. "A Monte Carlo Simulation Approach to Forecasting Multi-period Value-at-Risk and Expected Shortfall Using the FIGARCH-skT Specification," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 82(1), pages 71-102, January.
    18. Lahmiri, Salim & Bekiros, Stelios, 2017. "Disturbances and complexity in volatility time series," Chaos, Solitons & Fractals, Elsevier, vol. 105(C), pages 38-42.
    19. Angelidis, Dimitrios & Koulakiotis Athanasios & Kiohos Apostolos, 2018. "Feedback Trading Strategies: The Case of Greece and Cyprus," South East European Journal of Economics and Business, Sciendo, vol. 13(1), pages 93-99, June.
    20. Dimitrakopoulos, Dimitris N. & Kavussanos, Manolis G. & Spyrou, Spyros I., 2010. "Value at risk models for volatile emerging markets equity portfolios," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(4), pages 515-526, November.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:usm:journl:aamjaf012s1_159-182. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Journal Division, Penerbit Universiti Sains Malaysia (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aammmea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.