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Die Schweizer Wirtschaft zwischen Hammer und Amboss: Eine Analyse der "Franken-Schocks" 2010/11 und 2015

Author

Listed:
  • Matthias Flückiger
  • Christian Rutzer
  • Rolf Weder

Abstract

In diesem Beitrag untersuchen wir die Auswirkungen der beiden "Franken-Schocks" von 2010/11 und 2015 auf die Schweizer Volkswirtschaft. Auf makroökonomischer Ebene zeigt sich, dass die Nominallöhne, insbesondere im Industriesektor, vor dem Hintergrund sinkender Preise und einer nur leicht steigenden Arbeitsproduktivität bisher zu wenig unter Druck gekommen sind, bei einer sich langsam abzeichnenden Erhöhung der Arbeitslosigkeit. Die Analyse des Aussenhandels bestätigt einen negativen Effekt der Frankenaufwertung auf Exportmengen und -preise, der je nach Differenzierungsgrad der Güter und nach Destinationen unterschiedlich ausfällt. Auf der Importseite führt die Aufwertung vor allem zu sinkenden Preisen. Entsprechend sind überdurchschnittlich exportorientierte Branchen (und Unternehmen), welche gleichzeitig unter starker Importkonkurrenz stehen, am stärksten negativ betroffen. Verglichen mit den Schwankungen im Bruttoinlandprodukt (BIP) der Handelspartner haben Wechselkursveränderungen jedoch einen weit geringeren Effekt. Die Weltkonjunkturentwicklung wird deshalb einen entscheidenden Einfluss auf den weiteren Anpassungsdruck in der Schweizer Volkswirtschaft haben.

Suggested Citation

  • Matthias Flückiger & Christian Rutzer & Rolf Weder, 2016. "Die Schweizer Wirtschaft zwischen Hammer und Amboss: Eine Analyse der "Franken-Schocks" 2010/11 und 2015," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 67(03), pages 95-133, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:usg:auswrt:2016:67:03:95-133
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Marlene Amstad & Beatrice Weder di Mauro, 2017. "Long-run effects of exchange rate appreciation: Another puzzle?," Aussenwirtschaft, University of St. Gallen, School of Economics and Political Science, Swiss Institute for International Economics and Applied Economics Research, vol. 68(01), pages 63-82, December.
    2. Brunhart, Andreas & Geiger, Martin, 2022. "Sectoral effects of exchange rate shocks: Goods exports and the appreciation of the Swiss Franc in 2015," EconStor Preprints 266362, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics.

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