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Macro-Econometric Model For Medium-Term Socio-Economic Development Planning In Vietnam. Part 1: Structure Of The Model

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Listed:
  • Do Van Thanh

    (Associate Professor, Senior Researcher, Deputy general director of the National Centre for Socio-Economic Information and Forecast; Senior Lecturer, Nguyen Tat Thanh University)

Abstract

Vietnam builds the market economy from the planned economy, in which development plans, especially the medium-term socio-economic development plans, were determined by the leading economic management tools. Currently, the development plans remain the important tools of economic management. However, the contents and methodologies for development planning have changed considerably. The plans have been built according to the direction of the market and consider macroeconomic forecasts as the most important input for planning. The purpose of this paper is to briefly present the structure of a macro-econometric model for medium-term socio-economic development planning in Vietnam. The model is based on the main ideas of the forecasting procedures and the system of forecast models for strategic planning in the Russian Federation. Furthermore, the model utilizes the experience of macro-econometric models in other countries. This model is based on the approaches of supply and demand, and is organized into blocks that have a close relationship to combine forecasts from the built model and using judgmental methods in a favourable way. The model can fully forecast the needs of socio-economic development planning. It is also used to build forecast scenarios and to assess the impact of shocks and economic policies.

Suggested Citation

  • Do Van Thanh, 2019. "Macro-Econometric Model For Medium-Term Socio-Economic Development Planning In Vietnam. Part 1: Structure Of The Model," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(1), pages 121-136.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2019:i:1:p:121-136
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Ganna Iefimova & Andrey Labartkava & Oleksiy Pashchenko, 2020. "Methodical Support Of Assessment Of The Development Of Economic Security Of The Region," Baltic Journal of Economic Studies, Publishing house "Baltija Publishing", vol. 6(5).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    econometric models; forecasting models; models and applications; judgmental method; national economic planning; economic plans; forecasting procedures; forecasting scenarios; economic forecasts; economic forecasting;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • E17 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General Aggregative Models - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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