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Model complex of forecasting of interdependent development of migration processes and region labour market

Author

Listed:
  • Valeriy Chereshnev
  • Aleksandra Vasilyeva

    (Institute of Economics, Russian Academy of Sciences - Ural Branch, Centre for Economic Security,)

Abstract

The essential problems of current international labor migration raising the need to forecast interdependent labor market and migration processes in a region for improving the effectiveness of regional migration policy in Russia are considered. A model for the prediction of migration flows as determined by wage differentials, distances between populations of the regions as well as wages and unemployment, which come from the impact of migration on the availability of jobs at the labor market with search-matching frictions for source and host regions is presented in the framework of search and matching theory. Applying the model to statistical data, the forecast for labor migration flows to regions of Russia from CIS countries, as well as its effects on regional labor markets for 2012-2021 is maid. Recommendations for improving the effectiveness of regional migration policy are given on the basis of the forecast.

Suggested Citation

  • Valeriy Chereshnev & Aleksandra Vasilyeva, 2013. "Model complex of forecasting of interdependent development of migration processes and region labour market," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(3), pages 272-281.
    • Handle: RePEc:ura:ecregj:v:1:y:2013:i:3:p:272-281
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Mortensen, Dale & Pissarides, Christopher, 2011. "Job Creation and Job Destruction in the Theory of Unemployment," Ekonomicheskaya Politika / Economic Policy, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration, vol. 1, pages 1-19.
    2. Anatoliy Myzin & Petr Mezentsev & Oksana Denisova & Pavel Pykhov, 2007. "Comparative estimation of power-investing attractiveness of regions: method and its implementation," Economy of region, Centre for Economic Security, Institute of Economics of Ural Branch of Russian Academy of Sciences, vol. 1(4), pages 207-220.
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