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Fiscal Policy Reaction Function and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Ukraine

Author

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  • Artem Vdovychenko

    (National Bank of Ukraine)

Abstract

This study analyzes the fiscal policy reaction function with switching regimes. We use Logistic Smooth Transition Regressions (LSTR) to show that fiscal policy in Ukraine during the study period remained largely in passive mode, switching to active mode during periods of a high output gap and elevated debt-to-GDP ratio. An important finding is that the fiscal policy reaction function is nonlinear. Specifically, the response of fiscal policy to the output gap is asymmetric: fiscal policy is pro-cyclical during periods of economic growth but neutral in recession.

Suggested Citation

  • Artem Vdovychenko, 2017. "Fiscal Policy Reaction Function and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Ukraine," Visnyk of the National Bank of Ukraine, National Bank of Ukraine, issue 240, pages 22-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:ukb:journl:y:2017:i:240:p:22-35
    DOI: 10.26531/vnbu2017.240.022
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    File URL: https://journal.bank.gov.ua/en/article/2017/240/03
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 755-783, December.
    2. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
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    Cited by:

    1. Idrys Fransmel Okombi, 2021. "Non-Linear Response of Fiscal Policy to the Business Cycle: Empirical Evidence in Sub-Saharan Africa," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1097-1112.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Fiscal policy; fiscal sustainability; active/passive fiscal policy; regime switching;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

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