IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/eer/wpalle/16-07e.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Fiscal Policy Rection and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Ukraine

Author

Listed:
  • Vdovychenko Artem

Abstract

This article analyzes fiscal policy reaction function with switching regimes for Ukraine. We demonstrate that the fiscal policy reaction function in Ukraine has a nonlinear nature. The analysis revealed that the fiscal policy of Ukraine has been in a passive regime for a long time and a switch to this mode took place in late 2006 with the beginning of rapid economic growth. By means of the LSTR models, it is shown that at high levels of debt and the GDP gap the fiscal policy switches to an active regime. However, such switching is rare and short, and therefore does not have an impact on the overall picture. We also found an asymmetry in the response of fiscal policy on the GDP gap depending on the phase of the economic cycle. In our opinion, this asymmetry is the main obstacle to switching the fiscal policy in active regime.

Suggested Citation

  • Vdovychenko Artem, 2016. "Fiscal Policy Rection and Sustainability of Fiscal Policy in Ukraine," EERC Working Paper Series 16/07e, EERC Research Network, Russia and CIS.
    • Handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:16/07e
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://eercnetwork.com/default/download/creater/working_papers/file/616d85ca611cedf758b5b037d95c9a10c10d3631.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carlo A. Favero & Massimiliano Marcellino, 2005. "Modelling and Forecasting Fiscal Variables for the Euro Area," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 67(s1), pages 755-783, December.
    2. Mendoza, Enrique G. & Ostry, Jonathan D., 2008. "International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy "responsible"?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(6), pages 1081-1093, September.
    3. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    4. Henning Bohn, 1998. "The Behavior of U. S. Public Debt and Deficits," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(3), pages 949-963.
    5. Leeper, Eric M., 1991. "Equilibria under 'active' and 'passive' monetary and fiscal policies," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(1), pages 129-147, February.
    6. Adrian Penalver & Gregory Thwaites, 2006. "Fiscal rules for debt sustainability in emerging markets: the impact of volatility and default risk," Bank of England working papers 307, Bank of England.
    7. Legrenzi, Gabriella & Milas, Costas, 2013. "Modelling the fiscal reaction functions of the GIPS based on state-varying thresholds," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 384-389.
    8. Philippe Burger & Marina Marinkov, 2012. "Fiscal rules and regime-dependent fiscal reaction functions: The South African case," OECD Journal on Budgeting, OECD Publishing, vol. 12(1), pages 1-29.
    9. Galí, Jordi & Perotti, Roberto, 2003. "Fiscal Policy and Monetary Integration in Europe," CEPR Discussion Papers 3933, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521547871, September.
    11. Nina Budina & Sweder van Wijnbergen, 2008. "Quantitative Approaches to Fiscal Sustainability Analysis: A Case Study of Turkey since the Crisis of 2001," The World Bank Economic Review, World Bank, vol. 23(1), pages 119-140, November.
    12. Mr. Jonathan David Ostry & Mr. Abdul d Abiad, 2005. "Primary Surpluses and sustainable Debt Levels in Emerging Market Countries," IMF Policy Discussion Papers 2005/006, International Monetary Fund.
    13. Park, Cyn-Young & Mercado, Rogelio V., 2014. "Determinants of financial stress in emerging market economies," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 199-224.
    14. Lütkepohl,Helmut & Krätzig,Markus (ed.), 2004. "Applied Time Series Econometrics," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521839198, September.
    15. Bohn, Henning, 2007. "Are stationarity and cointegration restrictions really necessary for the intertemporal budget constraint?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(7), pages 1837-1847, October.
    16. Charl Jooste & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Ian C. Stuart & Philippe Burger, 2011. "Fiscal sustainability and the fiscal reaction function for South Africa," IMF Working Papers 2011/069, International Monetary Fund.
    17. Jordi Galí & Roberto Perotti, 2003. "Fiscal policy and monetary integration in Europe [‘Consumption smoothing through fiscal policy in OECD and EU countries’]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 18(37), pages 533-572.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Checherita-Westphal, Cristina & Žďárek, Václav, 2017. "Fiscal reaction function and fiscal fatigue: evidence for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2036, European Central Bank.
    2. Fournier, Jean-Marc & Fall, Falilou, 2017. "Limits to government debt sustainability in OECD countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 30-41.
    3. Sakuragawa, Masaya & Sakuragawa, Yukie, 2020. "Government fiscal projection and debt sustainability," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Piotr Ciżkowicz & Andrzej Rzońca & Rafał Trzeciakowski, 2015. "Windfall of Low Interest Payments and Fiscal Sustainability in the Euro Area: Analysis through Panel Fiscal Reaction Functions," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(4), pages 475-510, November.
    5. Everaert, Gerdie & Jansen, Stijn, 2018. "On the estimation of panel fiscal reaction functions: Heterogeneity or fiscal fatigue?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 87-96.
    6. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Discussion Paper 2022-021, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    7. Reicher, Claire, 2014. "Systematic fiscal policy and macroeconomic performance: A critical overview of the literature," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 8, pages 1-37.
    8. Westerhout, Ed, 2022. "30 Years of Generational Accounting : A Critical Review," Other publications TiSEM 252a02fe-7374-499e-97c5-0, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Lozano-Espitia, Ignacio & Julio-Román, J. Manuel, 2020. "Debt limits and fiscal space for some Latin American economies," Latin American Journal of Central Banking (previously Monetaria), Elsevier, vol. 1(1).
    10. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    11. Atish R. Ghosh & Jun I. Kim & Enrique G. Mendoza & Jonathan D. Ostry & Mahvash S. Qureshi, 2013. "Fiscal Fatigue, Fiscal Space and Debt Sustainability in Advanced Economies," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 0, pages 4-30, February.
    12. Taner Turan & Pelin Varol Iyidogan, 2022. "Estimating Fiscal Reaction Functions for Developing and Developed Countries: A Dynamic Panel Threshold Analysis," Journal of Economics / Ekonomicky casopis, Institute of Economic Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, vol. 70(5), pages 393-410, May.
    13. Campos, Eduardo Lima & Cysne, Rubens Penha, 2017. "A time-varying fiscal reaction function for Brazil," FGV EPGE Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 795, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil).
    14. Cyrus MUTUKU, 2015. "Assessing Fiscal Policy Cyclicality and Sustainability: A Fiscal Reaction Function for Kenya," Journal of Economics Library, KSP Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 173-191, September.
    15. Yoshida, Motonori, 2023. "Chronological changes of government sectors’ fiscal policies and fiscal sustainability in Japan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 66(C).
    16. Aldama, Pierre & Creel, Jérôme, 2022. "Real-time fiscal policy responses in the OECD from 1997 to 2018: Procyclical but sustainable?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 73(C).
    17. Serhan Cevik & Vibha Nanda, 2020. "Riding the storm: fiscal sustainability in the Caribbean," International Review of Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 34(3), pages 384-399, May.
    18. Ostry, Jonathan D. & Debrun, Xavier & Willems, Tim & Wyplosz, Charles, 2019. "Public Debt Sustainability," CEPR Discussion Papers 14010, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Heimberger, Philipp, 2023. "The cyclical behaviour of fiscal policy: A meta-analysis," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).
    20. Paret, Anne-Charlotte, 2017. "Debt sustainability in emerging market countries: Some policy guidelines from a fan-chart approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 63(C), pages 26-45.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • H62 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Deficit; Surplus
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eer:wpalle:16/07e. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Anton Pashchenko (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.eercnetwork.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.