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Forecasting demand for long-term care based on multistate piecewise constant Markov process

Author

Listed:
  • Cui Xiaodong
  • Zheng Yuhua

    (Nanjing Xiaozhuang University, Nanjing, China
    Nanjing Xiaozhuang University, Nanjing, China)

Abstract

This paper forecasts demand for long-term care based on multistate piecewise constant Markov process. Two types of data are mainly used in this study. The first type of data came from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS), 2008-2011. The second type of data came from the China’s Demographic Yearbook of 2016, used as the number of population in the base period. It finds that the changes in health have a significant difference in gender and age. It also finds that under different health states, the distribution of duration of staying in each state in different gender and age groups shows a characteristic similar to the distribution of population size.

Suggested Citation

  • Cui Xiaodong & Zheng Yuhua, 2018. "Forecasting demand for long-term care based on multistate piecewise constant Markov process," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 10(1), pages 15-31, April.
    • Handle: RePEc:uii:journl:v:10:y:2018:i:1:p:15-31
    DOI: 10.20885/ejem.vol10.iss1.art3
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. W. Hare & A. Alimadad & H. Dodd & R. Ferguson & A. Rutherford, 2009. "A deterministic model of home and community care client counts in British Columbia," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 80-98, March.
    2. Peng, Rong & Ling, Li & He, Qun, 2010. "Self-rated health status transition and long-term care need, of the oldest Chinese," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 97(2-3), pages 259-266, October.
    3. Joan Costa-Font & Raphael Wittenberg & Concepció Patxot & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Cristiano Gori & Alessandra di Maio & Linda Pickard & Alessandro Pozzi & Heinz Rothgang, 2008. "Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 303-321, April.
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    Cited by:

    1. Gouveia, Catarina & Kalakou, Sofia & Cardoso-Grilo, Teresa, 2023. "How to forecast mental healthcare needs? Distinguishing between perceived and unperceived needs and their impact on capacity requirements," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 87(PA).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Markov process; forecast; expectancy; population;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I0 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - General
    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • H5 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies

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