IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/gam/jijerp/v17y2020i22p8703-d449755.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Projection of the Number of Elderly in Different Health States in Thailand in the Next Ten Years, 2020–2030

Author

Listed:
  • Panupong Tantirat

    (Division of Epidemiology, Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand)

  • Repeepong Suphanchaimat

    (Division of Epidemiology, Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand
    International Health Policy Program (IHPP), Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand)

  • Thanit Rattanathumsakul

    (Division of Epidemiology, Disease Control, Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand)

  • Thinakorn Noree

    (International Health Policy Program (IHPP), Ministry of Public Health, Nonthaburi 11000, Thailand)

Abstract

The objective of this study is to predict the volume of the elderly in different health status categories in Thailand in the next ten years (2020–2030). Multistate modelling was performed. We defined four states of elderly patients (aged ≥ 60 years) according to four different levels of Activities of Daily Living (ADL): social group; home group; bedridden group; and dead group. The volume of newcomers was projected by trend extrapolation methods with exponential growth. The transition probabilities from one state to another was obtained by literature review and model optimization. The mortality rate was obtained by literature review. Sensitivity analysis was conducted. By 2030, the number of social, home, and bedridden groups was 15,593,054, 321,511, and 152,749, respectively. The model prediction error was 1.75%. Sensitivity analysis with the change of transition probabilities by 20% caused the number of bedridden patients to vary from between 150,249 and 155,596. In conclusion, the number of bedridden elders will reach 153,000 in the next decade (3 times larger than the status quo). Policy makers may consider using this finding as an input for future resource planning and allocation. Further studies should be conducted to identify the parameters that better reflect the transition of people from one health state to another.

Suggested Citation

  • Panupong Tantirat & Repeepong Suphanchaimat & Thanit Rattanathumsakul & Thinakorn Noree, 2020. "Projection of the Number of Elderly in Different Health States in Thailand in the Next Ten Years, 2020–2030," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(22), pages 1-12, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:22:p:8703-:d:449755
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/22/8703/pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.mdpi.com/1660-4601/17/22/8703/
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Lagergren, Marten, 2005. "Whither care of older persons in Sweden?--a prospective analysis based upon simulation model calculations, 2000-2030," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 325-334, November.
    2. Joan Costa-Font & Raphael Wittenberg & Concepció Patxot & Adelina Comas-Herrera & Cristiano Gori & Alessandra di Maio & Linda Pickard & Alessandro Pozzi & Heinz Rothgang, 2008. "Projecting Long-Term Care Expenditure in Four European Union Member States: The Influence of Demographic Scenarios," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 86(2), pages 303-321, April.
    3. Rickayzen, B.D. & Walsh, D.E.P., 2002. "A Multi-State Model of Disability for the United Kingdom: Implications for Future Need for Long-Term Care for the Elderly," British Actuarial Journal, Cambridge University Press, vol. 8(2), pages 341-393, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Jinpitcha Mamom & Hanvedes Daovisan, 2022. "Listening to Caregivers’ Voices: The Informal Family Caregiver Burden of Caring for Chronically Ill Bedridden Elderly Patients," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 19(1), pages 1-15, January.
    2. Sakchai Pattra & Cung Nawl Thawng & Sanhawat Chaiwong, 2023. "“Four Joints of Power” Innovation of Community Involvement in Medical Waste Management of Bed-Bound Patients in Thailand," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(2), pages 1-17, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Guogui Huang & Fei Guo & Zhiming Cheng & Massimiliano Tani & Gong Chen, 2023. "Projections of Future Demand and Costs of Aged Care Services in China," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(4), pages 1-30, August.
    2. Teresa Cardoso & Mónica Oliveira & Ana Barbosa-Póvoa & Stefan Nickel, 2012. "Modeling the demand for long-term care services under uncertain information," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 15(4), pages 385-412, December.
    3. Philip Worrall & Thierry Chaussalet, 2015. "A structured review of long-term care demand modelling," Health Care Management Science, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 173-194, June.
    4. William Lim & Gaurav Khemka & David Pitt & Bridget Browne, 2019. "A method for calculating the implied no-recovery three-state transition matrix using observable population mortality incidence and disability prevalence rates among the elderly," Journal of Population Research, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 245-282, September.
    5. Les Mayhew, 2017. "Means Testing Adult Social Care in England," The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance - Issues and Practice, Palgrave Macmillan;The Geneva Association, vol. 42(3), pages 500-529, July.
    6. Lagergren, Marten, 2005. "What happened to the care of older persons in Sweden?: A retrospective analysis based upon simulation model calculations, 1985-2000," Health Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 314-324, November.
    7. Bahnsen, Lewe & Fetzer, Stefan & Franke, Fabian & Hagist, Christian, 2020. "Gone with the windfall – Germany's Second LTC Strengthening Act and its intergenerational implications," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 17(C).
    8. Comas-Herrera, Adelina & Wittenberg, Raphael & Pickard, Linda, 2003. "Making projections of long-term care: examples and methodological issues," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 43294, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    9. Vincenzo Atella & Federico Belotti & Ludovico Carrino & Andrea Piano Mortari, 2017. "The future of Long Term Care in Europe. An investigation using a dynamic microsimulation model," CEIS Research Paper 405, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 08 May 2017.
    10. Kwon Hyuk-Sung & Lee Chang-Soo & Hur Jun-Soo, 2012. "Projecting the Cost of Long-Term Care Insurance in Korea," Asia-Pacific Journal of Risk and Insurance, De Gruyter, vol. 7(1), pages 1-22, December.
    11. Carole Bonnet & Sandrine Juin & Anne Laferrère, 2019. "Private Financing of Long‑Term Care: Income, Savings and Reverse Mortgages," Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques (INSEE), issue 507-508, pages 5-24.
    12. Lewe Bahnsen & Stefan Fetzer & Fabian Franke & Christian Hagist, 2018. "Gone with the Windfall - Germany‘s Second LTC Strengthening Act and its Intergenerational Implications," WHU Working Paper Series - Economics Group 18-05, WHU - Otto Beisheim School of Management.
    13. Stefan Rayer & Stanley Smith, 2014. "Population Projections by Age for Florida and its Counties: Assessing Accuracy and the Impact of Adjustments," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 33(5), pages 747-770, October.
    14. Konstandatos, Otto, 2020. "Fair-value analytical valuation of reset executive stock options consistent with IFRS9 requirements," Annals of Actuarial Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 188-218, March.
    15. Cui Xiaodong & Zheng Yuhua, 2018. "Forecasting demand for long-term care based on multistate piecewise constant Markov process," Economic Journal of Emerging Markets, Universitas Islam Indonesia, vol. 10(1), pages 15-31, April.
    16. J. Iñaki De La Peña & M. Cristina Fernández-Ramos & Asier Garayeta & Iratxe D. Martín, 2022. "Transforming Private Pensions: An Actuarial Model to Face Long-Term Costs," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(7), pages 1-17, March.
    17. T. Lehnert & O. H. Günther & A. Hajek & S. G. Riedel-Heller & H. H. König, 2018. "Preferences for home- and community-based long-term care services in Germany: a discrete choice experiment," The European Journal of Health Economics, Springer;Deutsche Gesellschaft für Gesundheitsökonomie (DGGÖ), vol. 19(9), pages 1213-1223, December.
    18. Brailsford, Sally & Vissers, Jan, 2011. "OR in healthcare: A European perspective," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 212(2), pages 223-234, July.
    19. Ermanno Pitacco, 2016. "Premiums for Long-Term Care Insurance Packages: Sensitivity with Respect to Biometric Assumptions," Risks, MDPI, vol. 4(1), pages 1-22, February.
    20. Ippoliti, Roberto & Falavigna, Greta, 2012. "Efficiency of the medical care industry: Evidence from the Italian regional system," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 217(3), pages 643-652.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gam:jijerp:v:17:y:2020:i:22:p:8703-:d:449755. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: MDPI Indexing Manager (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://www.mdpi.com .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.