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Program Trading and Individual Stock Returns: Ingredients of the Triple-Witching Brew

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  • Stoll, Hans R
  • Whaley, Robert E

Abstract

The price and trading volume behaviors of individual stocks in the Standard and Poor's 500 Stock Index (S&P 500) are analyzed on stock index futures expiration days, a time when the market is known to be subject to heavy program trading. The price behavior of stocks that are subject to program trading is shown to be very similar to stocks that are not. Stocks that decline in price in the last half hour Friday tend to increase in price at the opening on Monday and vice versa. The Monday reversal as a fraction of the Friday price change is only slightly higher for the S&P 500 stocks than for non-S& P 500 stocks, indicating that the price reversals reflect, for the most part, the bid-ask spreads of the individual stocks. Trading volume in the last half hour of expiration days is shown to be substantially higher than normal. Copyright 1990 by the University of Chicago.

Suggested Citation

  • Stoll, Hans R & Whaley, Robert E, 1990. "Program Trading and Individual Stock Returns: Ingredients of the Triple-Witching Brew," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 63(1), pages 165-192, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:jnlbus:v:63:y:1990:i:1:p:s165-92
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ito, Akitoshi, 1999. "Profits on technical trading rules and time-varying expected returns: evidence from Pacific-Basin equity markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 283-330, August.
    2. Chin-Lin Chuang & Dar-Hsin Chen & Chung-Hsien Su, 2008. "Reexamining The Expiration Day Effects Of Stock Index Derivatives: Evidence From Taiwan," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 2(2), pages 85-105.
    3. M. Illueca & J. A. LaFuente, 2006. "New evidence on expiration‐day effects using realized volatility: An intraday analysis for the Spanish stock exchange," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(9), pages 923-938, September.
    4. Henryk Gurgul & Milena Suliga, 2020. "Impact of futures expiration on underlying stocks: intraday analysis for Warsaw Stock Exchange," Central European Journal of Operations Research, Springer;Slovak Society for Operations Research;Hungarian Operational Research Society;Czech Society for Operations Research;Österr. Gesellschaft für Operations Research (ÖGOR);Slovenian Society Informatika - Section for Operational Research;Croatian Operational Research Society, vol. 28(3), pages 869-904, September.
    5. Milena Suliga, 2017. "Price reversal as potential expiration day effect of stock and index futures: evidence from Warsaw Stock Exchange," Managerial Economics, AGH University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 18(2), pages 201-225.
    6. Michael Aitken & Carole Comerton‐Forde & Alex Frino, 2005. "Closing call auctions and liquidity," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 45(4), pages 501-518, December.
    7. Agarwal, Sumit & Liu, Chunlin & Rhee, S. Ghon, 2007. "Where does price discovery occur for stocks traded in multiple markets? Evidence from Hong Kong and London," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 46-63, February.
    8. Christian Schlag, 1996. "Expiration day effects of stock index derivatives in Germany," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 2(1), pages 69-95, March.
    9. Paul Kofman & James T. Moser, 2001. "Stock margins and the condition probability of price reversals," Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, vol. 25(Q III), pages 2-12.
    10. W. Paul Spurlin & Bonnie F. Van Ness & Robert Van Ness, 2012. "Short sales in the NYSE batch open and NASDAQ opening cross," International Journal of Managerial Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 8(3), pages 219-237, June.
    11. Spurlin, W. Paul & Van Ness, Bonnie F. & Van Ness, Robert A., 2008. "Open volume and time to open on option-expiration days," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 245-257.
    12. Comerton-Forde, Carole & Rydge, James, 2006. "The influence of call auction algorithm rules on market efficiency," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(2), pages 199-222, May.
    13. Roll, Richard & Schwartz, Eduardo & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2014. "Trading activity in the equity market and its contingent claims: An empirical investigation," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 13-35.
    14. Matthew Clifton, 2010. "Liquidity and Efficiency During Unusual Market Conditions: An Analysis of Short Selling Restrictions and Expiration-Day Procedures on the London Stock Exchange," PhD Thesis, Finance Discipline Group, UTS Business School, University of Technology, Sydney, number 14, July-Dece.
    15. Hans R. Stoll & Robert E. Whaley, 1997. "Expiration†Day Effects of the All Ordinaries Share Price Index Futures: Empirical Evidence and Alternative Settlement Procedures," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 22(2), pages 139-174, December.
    16. Edward Chow & Chung-Wen Hung & Christine Liu & Cheng-Yi Shiu, 2013. "Expiration day effects and market manipulation: evidence from Taiwan," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 41(3), pages 441-462, October.
    17. Emily Lin & Carl R. Chen, 2019. "Settlement procedures and stock market efficiency," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(2), pages 164-185, February.
    18. Chiang, Chin-Han, 2014. "Stock returns on option expiration dates: Price impact of liquidity trading," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 273-290.

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