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Can Drought Increase Total Calorie Availability? The Impact of Drought on Food Consumption and the Mitigating Effects of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program

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  • Xiaohui Hou

Abstract

This study uses the panel data of a randomized experiment from the Mexican PROGRESA program to evaluate the impact of drought on total calorie availability and the mitigating effects of PROGRESA on food consumption in periods of drought. Drought reduced total expenditures and total food expenditures but increased the total availability of calories. This paradox can be explained by the impact of drought on the composition of calories; that is, it reduced the consumption of expensive calories in such foods as vegetables, fruits, and animal products but increased calories consumed from cheaper sources, such as grains. This study finds that PROGRESA can completely mitigate the negative effects of drought on calorie availability from vegetables, fruits, and other sources. However, PROGRESA cannot mitigate the impact of drought on calories available from grains. The analysis also shows that, during drought, households who increase their consumption of grains get them mainly from purchased sources rather than from home production. In these circumstances, decreased total expenditures and increased purchases of grains suggest that grains are inferior goods in rural Mexico. The Engel curve analysis further proves that grains are inferior goods. (c) 2010 by The University of Chicago. All rights reserved.

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  • Xiaohui Hou, 2010. "Can Drought Increase Total Calorie Availability? The Impact of Drought on Food Consumption and the Mitigating Effects of a Conditional Cash Transfer Program," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 58(4), pages 713-737, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:v:58:y:2010:i:4:p:713-737
    DOI: 10.1086/652477
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    3. Azreen Karim & Ilan Noy, 2016. "Poverty and Natural Disasters: A Meta-Regression Analysis," Review of Economics and Institutions, Università di Perugia, vol. 7(2).
    4. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2014. "Poverty and natural disasters: A meta-analysis," Working Paper Series 3234, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    5. Chege, Christine G.K. & Sibiko, Kenneth W. & Wanyama, Rosina & Jager, Matthias & Birachi, Eliud, 2019. "Are consumers at the base of the pyramid willing to pay for nutritious foods?," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-1.
    6. Carpena, Fenella, 2019. "How do droughts impact household food consumption and nutritional intake? A study of rural India," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 349-369.
    7. Simin Mehdipour & Nouzar Nakhaee & Farzaneh Zolala & Maryam Okhovati & Afsar Foroud & Ali Akbar Haghdoost, 2022. "A systematized review exploring the map of publications on the health impacts of drought," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 113(1), pages 35-62, August.
    8. Silas Ongudi & Djiby Thiam & Mario J. Miranda & Sam Abdoul, 2024. "The direct and indirect effects of cash transfer program on the consumption of nutrients: Evidence from Kenya," Agricultural Economics, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 55(3), pages 454-478, May.
    9. Pham, Trinh, 2021. "Adverse Rainfall Shocks and Child Outcomes: Evidence from Rural Vietnam," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 314051, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    10. Pham, Trinh, 2022. "The child education and health ethnic inequality consequences of climate shocks in Vietnam," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    11. Seth R. Gitter & James Manley & Jill Bernstein & Paul Winters, 2022. "Do agricultural support and cash transfer programmes improve nutritional status?," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(1), pages 203-235, January.
    12. Azreen Karim & Ilan Noy, 2016. "Poverty And Natural Disasters — A Qualitative Survey Of The Empirical Literature," The Singapore Economic Review (SER), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 61(01), pages 1-36, March.
    13. Hou, Xiaohui, 2011. "Women's decision making power and human development : evidence from Pakistan," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5830, The World Bank.
    14. Karim, Azreen & Noy, Ilan, 2014. "Poverty and natural disasters: A meta-analysis," Working Paper Series 18823, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.
    15. Noy, Ilan & Karim, Azreen, 2013. "Poverty, inequality and natural disasters – A survey," Working Paper Series 18793, Victoria University of Wellington, School of Economics and Finance.

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