IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tsy/journl/journl_tsy_er_2012_4_3.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The familiar pattern of Chinese consumption growth

Author

Listed:
  • Paul Hubbard

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Samuel Hurley

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

  • Dhruv Sharma

    (Treasury, Government of Australia)

Abstract

Since the beginning of China’s ‘reform and opening up’, high rates of investment spending have dramatically expanded the productive capacity of the Chinese economy, and accommodated the migration of hundreds of millions of rural agricultural labourers to the industrial and services sectors. This has underwritten a sustained boom in Chinese household consumption, even though it has declined as a share of Chinese GDP. While unique in its magnitude, China appears to be following the same development path of Japan, Korea and Singapore. As the migration of the labour force from agriculture to urban based industry runs its course, and as higher income consumers demand more labour intensive services, household incomes — and with it household consumption — is likely to stabilise as a share of GDP.

Suggested Citation

  • Paul Hubbard & Samuel Hurley & Dhruv Sharma, 2012. "The familiar pattern of Chinese consumption growth," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 63-78, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2012_4_3
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/~/media/Treasury/Publications%20and%20Media/Publications/2012/roundup-04/downloads/pdf/Economic-Roundup-4-article3.ashx
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: http://www.treasury.gov.au/PublicationsAndMedia/Publications/2012/Economic-Roundup-Issue-4/HTML/article3
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Barry Eichengreen & Donghyun Park & Kwanho Shin, 2012. "When Fast-Growing Economies Slow Down: International Evidence and Implications for China," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 11(1), pages 42-87, Winter/Sp.
    2. Brendan Coates & Dougal Horton & Lachlan McNamee, 2012. "China: prospects for export-driven growth," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 79-102, December.
    3. Veasna Kong & Adam McKissack & Dong Zhang, 2012. "China in a new period of transition," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 42-62, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Brendan Coates & Dougal Horton & Lachlan McNamee, 2012. "China: prospects for export-driven growth," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 79-102, December.
    2. Agnes Szunomar (ed.), 2014. "Chinese investments and financial engagement in Visegrad countries - Myth or reality?," Economic books, Institute for World Economics - Centre for Economic and Regional Studies, number 201411.
    3. Veasna Kong & Adam McKissack & Dong Zhang, 2012. "China in a new period of transition," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 42-62, December.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Brendan Coates & Dougal Horton & Lachlan McNamee, 2012. "China: prospects for export-driven growth," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 4, pages 79-102, December.
    2. Murach, Michael & Wagner, Helmut & Kim, Jungsuk & Park, Donghyun, 2022. "Trajectories to high income: Comparing the growth dynamics in China, South Korea, and Japan with cointegrated VAR models," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 492-511.
    3. Kim, Jinhee & Lee, Keun, 2022. "Local–global interface as a key factor in the catching up of regional innovation systems: Fast versus slow catching up among Taipei, Shenzhen, and Penang in Asia," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 174(C).
    4. Davide Fiaschi & Andrea Mario Lavezzi & Angela Parenti, 2020. "Deep and Proximate Determinants of the World Income Distribution," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 66(3), pages 677-710, September.
    5. Julia, Knolle, 2014. "An Empirical Comparison of Interest and Growth Rates," MPRA Paper 59520, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Janusz Heller & Rafal Warzala, 2018. "Is Poland in a middle income trap? A theoretical and empirical analysis," Ekonomia i Prawo, Uniwersytet Mikolaja Kopernika, vol. 17(4), pages 367-381, December.
    7. Saúl N. Keifman & Diego Herrero, 2020. "Convergencia económica e industrial entre países. ¿Qué dice la evidencia?," Asociación Argentina de Economía Política: Working Papers 4361, Asociación Argentina de Economía Política.
    8. Bresser-Pereira, Luiz Carlos, 2021. "Brazil's quasi-stagnation and East-Asia growth: A new-developmental explanation," Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 500-508.
    9. Tan Khee Giap & Sasidaran Gopalan & Nursyahida Ahmad, 2018. "Growth Slowdown Analysis for Indonesia’s Subnational Economies: An Empirical Investigation," Review of Pacific Basin Financial Markets and Policies (RPBFMP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 21(03), pages 1-36, September.
    10. Amir Lebdioui & Keun Lee & Carlo Pietrobelli, 2021. "Local-foreign technology interface, resource-based development, and industrial policy: how Chile and Malaysia are escaping the middle-income trap," The Journal of Technology Transfer, Springer, vol. 46(3), pages 660-685, June.
    11. Minsoo Lee & Donghyun Park & Arief Ramayandi, 2017. "How growth deceleration in the PRC affects other Asian economies," Asian-Pacific Economic Literature, The Crawford School, The Australian National University, vol. 31(2), pages 61-77, November.
    12. Rod Tyers, 2012. "The Rise and Robustness of Economic Freedom in China," Economics Discussion / Working Papers 12-02, The University of Western Australia, Department of Economics.
    13. Gauvin, Ludovic & Rebillard, Cyril, 2013. "Towards Recoupling? Assessing the Impact of a Chinese Hard Landing on Commodity Exporters: Results from Conditional Forecast in a GVAR Model," MPRA Paper 65457, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Harpaul Alberto Kohli & Y. Aaron Szyf & Drew Arnold, 2012. "Construction and Analysis of a Global GDP Growth Model for 185 Countries through 2050," Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, Emerging Markets Forum, vol. 4(2), pages 91-153, May.
    15. Kang, Byeongwoo & Nabeshima, Kaoru & Cheng, Fang-Ting, 2015. "Avoiding the middle income trap : indigenous innovative effort vs foreign innovative effort," IDE Discussion Papers 509, Institute of Developing Economies, Japan External Trade Organization(JETRO).
    16. Linda Glawe & Helmut Wagner, 2016. "The Middle-Income Trap: Definitions, Theories and Countries Concerned—A Literature Survey," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 58(4), pages 507-538, December.
    17. Agénor, Pierre-Richard & Canuto, Otaviano, 2015. "Middle-income growth traps," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(4), pages 641-660.
    18. Otsuka, Keijiro & Higuchi, Yuki & Sonobe, Tetsushi, 2017. "Middle-income traps in East Asia: An inquiry into causes for slowdown in income growth," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(S), pages 3-16.
    19. Eswar Prasad, 2023. "Has China's Growth Gone from Miracle to Malady?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 54(1 (Spring), pages 243-270.
    20. Rod Tyers, 2012. "Looking Inward for Transformative Growth in China," CAMA Working Papers 2012-15, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese economy; consumption; rebalancing;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E21 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Consumption; Saving; Wealth
    • O10 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - General
    • O53 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Asia including Middle East
    • P52 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Comparative Economic Systems - - - Comparative Studies of Particular Economies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tsy:journl:journl_tsy_er_2012_4_3. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: The Treasury (Commonwealth of Australia) (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/trgovau.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.