Dividends, Total Cash Flow to Shareholders, and Predictive Return Regressions
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Ivo Welch & Amit Goyal, 2008.
"A Comprehensive Look at The Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1455-1508, July.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2412, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Jan 2006.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch & Athanasse Zafirov, 2021. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction II," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 21-85, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Amit Goval & Ivo Welch, 2004. "A Comprehensive Look at the Empirical Performance of Equity Premium Prediction," NBER Working Papers 10483, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, 2001.
"Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics Or Lower Propensity To Pay?,"
Journal of Applied Corporate Finance, Morgan Stanley, vol. 14(1), pages 67-79, March.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 2001. "Disappearing dividends: changing firm characteristics or lower propensity to pay?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 3-43, April.
- Eugene F. Fama & Kenneth R. French, "undated". "Disappearing Dividends: Changing Firm Characteristics or Lower Propensity to Pay?."," CRSP working papers 509, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
- Hodrick, Robert J, 1992.
"Dividend Yields and Expected Stock Returns: Alternative Procedures for Inference and Measurement,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(3), pages 357-386.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "OLSHODRICK: RATS procedure to compute Hodrick standard errors," Statistical Software Components RTS00147, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Goetzmann, William Nelson & Jorion, Philippe, 1993.
"Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 663-679, June.
- Goetzmann, W.N., 1990. "Testing The Predictive Power Of Dividend Yields," Papers fb-_90-12, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Goetzman, W.N. & Jorion, P., 1992. "Testing the Predictive Power of Dividend Yields," Papers 93-03, Columbia - Graduate School of Business.
- Nelson, Charles R & Kim, Myung J, 1993. "Predictable Stock Returns: The Role of Small Sample Bias," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(2), pages 641-661, June.
- Jacob Boudoukh & Roni Michaely & Matthew Richardson & Michael R. Roberts, 2007.
"On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(2), pages 877-915, April.
- Jacob Boudoukh & Roni Michaely & Matthew Richardson & Michael Roberts, 2004. "On the Importance of Measuring Payout Yield: Implications for Empirical Asset Pricing," NBER Working Papers 10651, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bagwell, Laurie Simon & Shoven, John B, 1989. "Cash Distributions to Shareholders," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 3(3), pages 129-140, Summer.
- Pesaran, M Hashem & Timmermann, Allan, 1995. "Predictability of Stock Returns: Robustness and Economic Significance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1201-1228, September.
- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2008. "Miller and Modigliani, Predictive Return Regressions and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 181-207, April.
- Gustavo Grullon & Roni Michaely, 2002. "Dividends, Share Repurchases, and the Substitution Hypothesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(4), pages 1649-1684, August.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2003.
"Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 49(5), pages 639-654, May.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 1999. "Predicting the Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios," Yale School of Management Working Papers amz2437, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Nov 2002.
- Amit Goyal & Ivo Welch, 2002. "Predicting the Equity Premium With Dividend Ratios," NBER Working Papers 8788, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Stephen Wright, 2004. "Measures Of Stock Market Value And Returns For The U.S. Nonfinancial Corporate Sector, 1900–2002," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 50(4), pages 561-584, December.
- John Y. Campbell, Robert J. Shiller, 1988.
"The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 1(3), pages 195-228.
- John Y. Campbell & Robert J. Shiller, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," NBER Working Papers 2100, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Robert J. Shiller & John Y. Campbell, 1986. "The Dividend-Price Ratio and Expectations of Future Dividends and Discount Factors," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 812, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Jegadeesh, Narasimhan, 1990. "Evidence of Predictable Behavior of Security Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 45(3), pages 881-898, July.
- Lewellen, Jonathan, 2004. "Predicting returns with financial ratios," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 209-235, November.
- Bossaerts, Peter & Hillion, Pierre, 1999. "Implementing Statistical Criteria to Select Return Forecasting Models: What Do We Learn?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 12(2), pages 405-428.
- Foster, F Douglas & Smith, Tom & Whaley, Robert E, 1997. "Assessing Goodness-of-Fit of Asset Pricing Models: The Distribution of the Maximal R-Squared," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(2), pages 591-607, June.
- Merton H. Miller & Franco Modigliani, 1961. "Dividend Policy, Growth, and the Valuation of Shares," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 34, pages 411-411.
- Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1988. "Dividend yields and expected stock returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 3-25, October.
- Ackert, Lucy F & Smith, Brian F, 1993. "Stock Price Volatility, Ordinary Dividends, and Other Cash Flows to Shareholders," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 48(4), pages 1147-1160, September.
- Stambaugh, Robert F., 1999.
"Predictive regressions,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 375-421, December.
- Robert F. Stambaugh, 1999. "Predictive Regressions," NBER Technical Working Papers 0240, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Kirby, Chris, 1997. "Measuring the Predictable Variation in Stock and Bond Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(3), pages 579-630.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Kwang Hun Choi & Chang‐Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2017. "Regime Shifts in Price‐Dividend Ratios and Expected Stock Returns: A Present‐Value Approach," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 49(2-3), pages 417-441, March.
- Chava, Sudheer & Gallmeyer, Michael & Park, Heungju, 2015. "Credit conditions and stock return predictability," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 117-132.
- Chang‐Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2013.
"Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend–Price Ratio and Return Predictability,"
Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 933-952, August.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2013. "Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(5), pages 933-952, August.
- Chang-Jin Kim & Cheolbeom Park, 2012. "Disappearing Dividends: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Discussion Paper Series 1205, Institute of Economic Research, Korea University.
- Nebojsa Dimic & Vitaly Orlov & Janne Äijö, 2019. "Bond–Equity Yield Ratio Market Timing in Emerging Markets," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 18(1), pages 52-79, April.
- Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008.
"Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.
- Borja Larrain & Motohiro Yogo, 2005. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow?," Working Papers 05-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Borja Larrain & Motohiro Yogo, 2007. "Does Firm Value Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Cash Flow?," NBER Working Papers 12847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Ilaria Piatti & Fabio Trojani, 2020.
"Dividend Growth Predictability and the Price–Dividend Ratio,"
Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 66(1), pages 130-158, January.
- Ilaria Piatti & Fabio Trojani, 2012. "Dividend Growth Predictability and the Price-Dividend Ratio," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 12-42, Swiss Finance Institute.
- Park, Cheolbeom, 2010. "When does the dividend-price ratio predict stock returns?," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 81-101, January.
- Carmelo Giaccotto & Alain Krapl, 2014. "Good News and Bad News about Firm-Level Stock Returns of Internationally Exposed Firms," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 14(4), pages 523-550, December.
- Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2006.
"Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy',"
Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 116(513), pages 791-811, July.
- Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2003. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, And ‘The New Economy’," Public Policy Discussion Papers 03-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Jakob B. Madsen & E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth and 'The New Economy," FRU Working Papers 2004/11, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics. Finance Research Unit.
- Jakob B Madsen & E Philip Davis, 2003. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, And ‘The New Economy’," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 03-04, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Jakob B. Madsen & E. Philip Davis, 2004. "Equity Prices, Productivity Growth, and the 'New Economy'," EPRU Working Paper Series 04-05, Economic Policy Research Unit (EPRU), University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2008. "Miller and Modigliani, Predictive Return Regressions and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 181-207, April.
- Helmut Herwartz & Malte Rengel & Fang Xu, 2016. "Local Trends in Price‐to‐Dividend Ratios—Assessment, Predictive Value, and Determinants," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 48(8), pages 1655-1690, December.
- Issam Samiri, 2021. "Macroeconomic Effects of Firms' Underspending in Times of Abundant Credit," BCAM Working Papers 2102, Birkbeck Centre for Applied Macroeconomics.
- Demetrios Eliades & Olaf Weeken, 2005. "The stock market and capital accumulation: an application to UK data," Bank of England working papers 251, Bank of England.
- Long Chen & Zhi Da & Richard Priestley, 2012. "Dividend Smoothing and Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(10), pages 1834-1853, October.
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- Piergiorgio Alessandri & Donald Robertson & Stephen Wright, 2008. "Miller and Modigliani, Predictive Return Regressions and Cointegration," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 70(2), pages 181-207, April.
- Rapach, David & Zhou, Guofu, 2013. "Forecasting Stock Returns," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 328-383, Elsevier.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2008.
"Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1607-1652, July.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," NBER Working Papers 12109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Martin Lettau & Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, 2006. "Reconciling the Return Predictability Evidence," 2006 Meeting Papers 29, Society for Economic Dynamics.
- Larrain, Borja & Yogo, Motohiro, 2008.
"Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 87(1), pages 200-226, January.
- Borja Larrain & Motohiro Yogo, 2005. "Does firm value move too much to be justified by subsequent changes in cash flow?," Working Papers 05-18, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
- Borja Larrain & Motohiro Yogo, 2007. "Does Firm Value Move Too Much to be Justified by Subsequent Changes in Cash Flow?," NBER Working Papers 12847, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Neil Kellard & John Nankervis & Fotis Papadimitriou, 2007. "Predicting the UK Equity Premium with Dividend Ratios: An Out-Of-Sample Recursive Residuals Graphical Approach," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2006 129, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- John Powell & Jing Shi & Tom Smith & Robert Whaley, 2009. "Common Divisors, Payout Persistence, and Return Predictability," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 9(4), pages 335-357, December.
- Paye, Bradley S. & Timmermann, Allan, 2006. "Instability of return prediction models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(3), pages 274-315, June.
- Chen, Long, 2009. "On the reversal of return and dividend growth predictability: A tale of two periods," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(1), pages 128-151, April.
- Rapach, David E. & Wohar, Mark E., 2006. "In-sample vs. out-of-sample tests of stock return predictability in the context of data mining," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 231-247, March.
- Jank, Stephan, 2012. "Changes in the composition of publicly traded firms: Implications for the dividend-price ratio and return predictability," CFR Working Papers 12-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
- Chronopoulos, Dimitris K. & Papadimitriou, Fotios I. & Vlastakis, Nikolaos, 2018. "Information demand and stock return predictability," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 59-74.
- Stephan Jank, 2015. "Changes in the Composition of Publicly Traded Firms: Implications for the Dividend-Price Ratio and Return Predictability," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(6), pages 1362-1377, June.
- Boudoukh, Jacob & Israel, Ronen & Richardson, Matthew, 2022. "Biases in long-horizon predictive regressions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 145(3), pages 937-969.
- John H. Cochrane, 2008.
"The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability,"
The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1533-1575, July.
- John H. Cochrane, 2006. "The Dog That Did Not Bark: A Defense of Return Predictability," NBER Working Papers 12026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jacob Boudoukh & Matthew Richardson & Robert F. Whitelaw, 2008. "The Myth of Long-Horizon Predictability," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(4), pages 1577-1605, July.
- Puneet Handa, 2006. "Does Stock Return Predictability Imply Improved Asset Allocation and Performance? Evidence from the U.S. Stock Market (1954–2002)," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(5), pages 2423-2468, September.
- John Y. Campbell, 2008.
"Viewpoint: Estimating the equity premium,"
Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 41(1), pages 1-21, February.
- John Y. Campbell, 2008. "Viewpoint: Estimating the equity premium," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 41(1), pages 1-21, February.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy T. Simin, 2003.
"Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?,"
Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1393-1413, August.
- Wayne E. Ferson & Sergei Sarkissian & Timothy Simin, 2002. "Spurious Regressions in Financial Economics?," NBER Working Papers 9143, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jiang, Fuwei & Lee, Joshua & Martin, Xiumin & Zhou, Guofu, 2019.
"Manager sentiment and stock returns,"
Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 126-149.
- Fuwei Jiang & Joshua Lee & Xiumin Martin & Guofu Zhou, 2019. "Manager sentiment and stock returns," CEMA Working Papers 677, China Economics and Management Academy, Central University of Finance and Economics.
- Yufeng Han, 2010. "On the Economic Value of Return Predictability," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 11(1), pages 1-33, May.
Corrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:88:y:2006:i:1:p:91-99. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.