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Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk

Author

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  • Jacobson, Tor

    (Research Department, Central Bank of Sweden)

  • Roszbach, Kasper

    (Department of Economics)

Abstract

In this paper we apply a bivariate probit model to investigate the implications of bank lending policy. In the first equation we model the bank´s decision to grant a loan, in the second the probability of default. We confirm that banks provide loans in a way that is not consistent with default risk minimization. The lending policy must thus either be inefficient or be the result of some other type of optimizing behavior than expected profit maximization. Value at Risk, being a value weighted sum of individual risks, provides a more adequate measure of monetary losses on a portfolio of loans than default risk. We derive a Value at Risk measure for the sample portfolio of loans and show how analyzing this can enable financial institutions to evaluate alternative lending policies on the basis of their implied credit risk and loss rate, and make lending rates consistent with the implied Value at Risk.
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Suggested Citation

  • Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 1998. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring and Value at Risk," Working Paper Series 68, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
    • Handle: RePEc:hhs:rbnkwp:0068
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen D. Williamson, 1987. "Costly Monitoring, Loan Contracts, and Equilibrium Credit Rationing," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 102(1), pages 135-145.
    2. Ben S. Bernanke & Mark Gertler, 1995. "Inside the Black Box: The Credit Channel of Monetary Policy Transmission," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 27-48, Fall.
    3. Carling, Kenneth & Jacobson, Tor & Roszbach, Kasper, 2001. "Dormancy risk and expected profits of consumer loans," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(4), pages 717-739, April.
    4. Kasper Roszbach, 2004. "Bank Lending Policy, Credit Scoring, and the Survival of Loans," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 86(4), pages 946-958, November.
    5. Jaffee, Dwight & Stiglitz, Joseph, 1990. "Credit rationing," Handbook of Monetary Economics, in: B. M. Friedman & F. H. Hahn (ed.), Handbook of Monetary Economics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 16, pages 837-888, Elsevier.
    6. Stiglitz, Joseph E & Weiss, Andrew, 1981. "Credit Rationing in Markets with Imperfect Information," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 71(3), pages 393-410, June.
    7. Boyes, William J. & Hoffman, Dennis L. & Low, Stuart A., 1989. "An econometric analysis of the bank credit scoring problem," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 3-14, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Banks; Lending policy; Credit scoring; Value at Risk; Bivariate probit;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C35 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Discrete Regression and Qualitative Choice Models; Discrete Regressors; Proportions
    • D61 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors

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