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Cobwebs, Rational Expectations and Futures Markets

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  • Stein, Jerome L

Abstract

In the absence of futures markets, cobweb cycles and other behavior inconsistent with Muth rational expectations persist for long periods of time. When futures markets are introduced in commodities, these markets behave in a manner much more consistent with Muth rational expectations. By contrast, despite the existence of active forward and futures markets, the Muth rational expectations hypothesis is rejected in the financial and foreign exchange markets. The aim of this paper is to suggest an explanation of how futures markets change the structure of the supply response. Copyright 1992 by MIT Press.

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  • Stein, Jerome L, 1992. "Cobwebs, Rational Expectations and Futures Markets," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 74(1), pages 127-134, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:74:y:1992:i:1:p:127-34
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    Cited by:

    1. Chembezi, Duncan M. & Cacho, Joyce A., 1997. "Alternative Price Expectation Formulation and Information Access," 1997 Annual Meeting, July 13-16, 1997, Reno\ Sparks, Nevada 35905, Western Agricultural Economics Association.
    2. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2012. "The Hog-Cycle of Law Professors," Discussion Paper Series of the Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods 2012_08, Max Planck Institute for Research on Collective Goods.
    3. Neibergs, J. Shannon & Thalheimer, Richard, 1997. "Price Expectations And Supply Response In The Thoroughbred Yearling Market," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, Southern Agricultural Economics Association, vol. 29(2), pages 1-17, December.
    4. Christoph Engel & Hanjo Hamann, 2016. "The Hog Cycle of Law Professors: An Econometric Time Series Analysis of the Entry-Level Job Market in Legal Academia," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 11(7), pages 1-22, July.
    5. S. Wong & C. Yiu & M. Tse & K. Chau, 2006. "Do the Forward Sales of Real Estate Stabilize Spot Prices?," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 32(3), pages 289-304, May.
    6. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1998. "The economics of global environmental risk," MPRA Paper 8812, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    7. Jerome L. Stein, 1994. "Can the central bank achieve price stability?," Review, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, issue Mar, pages 175-203.
    8. Álvarez-Uribe, Karla C. & Arango-Aramburo, Santiago & Larsen, Erik R., 2018. "Forward contracts in electricity markets and capacity investment: A simulation study," Utilities Policy, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 1-10.
    9. Jacks, David S., 2007. "Populists versus theorists: Futures markets and the volatility of prices," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 44(2), pages 342-362, April.
    10. Brorsen, B. Wade & Irwin, Scott H., 1996. "Improving the Relevance of Research on Price Forecasting and Marketing Strategies," Agricultural and Resource Economics Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(1), pages 68-75, April.
    11. Irwin, Scott H., 1994. "The Economic Value of Situation and Outlook Programs: A Review of Theory and Empirical Evidence," Re-Engineering Marketing Policies for Food and Agriculture - FAMC 1994 Conference 265986, Food and Agricultural Marketing Consortium (FAMC).
    12. Garcia, Philip & Irwin, Scott H. & Leuthold, Raymond M. & Yang, Li, 1997. "The value of public information in commodity futures markets," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 559-570, April.
    13. Chichilnisky, Graciela, 1996. "Markets with endogenous uncertainty: theory and policy," MPRA Paper 8612, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. A. G. Malliaris & Jerome L. Stein, 2005. "Methodological issues in asset pricing: Random walk or chaotic dynamics," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Economic Uncertainty, Instabilities And Asset Bubbles Selected Essays, chapter 8, pages 85-115, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..

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