IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/tpr/glenvp/v20y2020i2p83-104.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Under What Conditions Will the Paris Process Produce a Cycle of Increasing Ambition Sufficient to Reach the 2°C Goal?

Author

Listed:
  • Håkon Sælen

Abstract

The Paris Agreement establishes a cycle where parties submit their nationally determined contributions (NDCs) every five years. First-round NDCs fail to put emissions on a path consistent with achieving the Agreement’s 2°C goal. This article presents a formal, dynamic model of reciprocity-based collective action among states and investigates the conditions under which the Paris process might deliver sufficient ambition ratchet-up to achieve the 2°C goal. The model is run under various assumptions about parties’ (1) willingness to increase ambition as a function of what others promise and deliver, (2) compliance with promises, (3) trust in the outcome of the review process, and (4) trust in the outcome of the periodic global stocktake. The results show that the Paris process delivers sufficient ambition ratchet-up to achieve the 2°C goal only under a very restricted set of conditions. At minimum, parties need to increase ambition by 4 percent of global emissions when they submit, confirm, or revise their 2030 targets in 2020.

Suggested Citation

  • Håkon Sælen, 2020. "Under What Conditions Will the Paris Process Produce a Cycle of Increasing Ambition Sufficient to Reach the 2°C Goal?," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 83-104, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:tpr:glenvp:v:20:y:2020:i:2:p:83-104
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.mitpressjournals.org/doi/pdf/10.1162/glep_a_00548
    Download Restriction: Access to PDF is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Aslak Brun, 2016. "Conference Diplomacy: The Making of the Paris Agreement," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 115-123.
    2. Hovi, Jon & Sprinz, Detlef F. & Sælen, Håkon & Underdal, Arild, 2019. "The Club Approach: A Gateway to Effective Climate Co-operation?," British Journal of Political Science, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(3), pages 1071-1096, July.
    3. Nyborg, Karine, 2018. "Reciprocal climate negotiators," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 707-725.
    4. Hoel, Michael, 1991. "Global environmental problems: The effects of unilateral actions taken by one country," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 20(1), pages 55-70, January.
    5. Radoslav Dimitrov & Jon Hovi & Detlef F. Sprinz & Håkon Sælen & Arild Underdal, 2019. "Institutional and environmental effectiveness: Will the Paris Agreement work?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), July.
    6. Fischbacher, Urs & Gachter, Simon & Fehr, Ernst, 2001. "Are people conditionally cooperative? Evidence from a public goods experiment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 71(3), pages 397-404, June.
    7. Guri Bang & Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2016. "The Paris Agreement: Short-Term and Long-Term Effectiveness," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 209-218.
    8. Gregory Briner & Sara Moarif, 2016. "Unpacking provisions related to transparency of mitigation and support in the Paris Agreement," OECD/IEA Climate Change Expert Group Papers 2016/2, OECD Publishing.
    9. Jen Iris Allan, 2019. "Dangerous Incrementalism of the Paris Agreement," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 19(1), pages 4-11, February.
    10. Thomas Hale, 2016. "“All Hands on Deck”: The Paris Agreement and Nonstate Climate Action," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 16(3), pages 12-22, August.
    11. Steven Bernstein & Matthew Hoffmann, 2018. "The politics of decarbonization and the catalytic impact of subnational climate experiments," Policy Sciences, Springer;Society of Policy Sciences, vol. 51(2), pages 189-211, June.
    12. Urs Fischbacher & Simon Gachter, 2010. "Social Preferences, Beliefs, and the Dynamics of Free Riding in Public Goods Experiments," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(1), pages 541-556, March.
    13. J. Doyne Farmer & Duncan Foley, 2009. "The economy needs agent-based modelling," Nature, Nature, vol. 460(7256), pages 685-686, August.
    14. Joeri Rogelj & Oliver Fricko & Malte Meinshausen & Volker Krey & Johanna J. J. Zilliacus & Keywan Riahi, 2017. "Understanding the origin of Paris Agreement emission uncertainties," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 8(1), pages 1-12, August.
    15. Matto Mildenberger, 2019. "Support for climate unilateralism," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 187-188, March.
    16. Nicholas Bardsley & Peter Moffatt, 2007. "The Experimetrics of Public Goods: Inferring Motivations from Contributions," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 62(2), pages 161-193, March.
    17. Robert O. Keohane & David G. Victor, 2016. "Cooperation and discord in global climate policy," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 6(6), pages 570-575, June.
    18. Ceecee Holz & Sivan Kartha & Tom Athanasiou, 2018. "Fairly sharing 1.5: national fair shares of a 1.5 °C-compliant global mitigation effort," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 117-134, February.
    19. Johannes Urpelainen, 2013. "A model of dynamic climate governance: dream big, win small," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 13(2), pages 107-125, May.
    20. Jennifer Morgan & Eliza Northrop, 2017. "Will the Paris Agreement accelerate the pace of change?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(5), September.
    21. Liam F. McGrath & Thomas Bernauer, 2017. "How strong is public support for unilateral climate policy and what drives it?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 8(6), November.
    22. Kai A. Konrad & Marcel Thum, 2014. "Climate Policy Negotiations with Incomplete Information," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 244-256, April.
    23. Hafner-Burton, Emilie M. & LeVeck, Brad L. & Victor, David G. & Fowler, James H., 2014. "Decision Maker Preferences for International Legal Cooperation," International Organization, Cambridge University Press, vol. 68(4), pages 845-876, October.
    24. Wolfgang Buchholz & Todd Sandler, 2017. "Successful Leadership in Global Public Good Provision: Incorporating Behavioural Approaches," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(3), pages 591-607, July.
    25. Robert O. Keohane & Michael Oppenheimer, 2016. "Paris: Beyond the Climate Dead End through Pledge and Review?," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 142-151.
    26. Liam F. Beiser-McGrath & Thomas Bernauer, 2019. "Commitment failures are unlikely to undermine public support for the Paris agreement," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 9(3), pages 248-252, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thomas Hale, 2020. "Catalytic Cooperation," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 20(4), pages 73-98, Autumn.
    2. Patrick Bayer & Federica Genovese, 2020. "Beliefs About Consequences from Climate Action Under Weak Climate Institutions: Sectors, Home Bias, and International Embeddedness," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 20(4), pages 28-50, Autumn.
    3. Marco Vincenzi, 2023. "Mapping the empirical relationship between environmental performance and social preferences: Evidence from macro data," ECONOMICS AND POLICY OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2023(1), pages 85-102.
    4. Nyborg, Karine, 2018. "Reciprocal climate negotiators," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 92(C), pages 707-725.
    5. Joanna Depledge, 2022. "The “top-down” Kyoto Protocol? Exploring caricature and misrepresentation in literature on global climate change governance," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 673-692, December.
    6. Tørstad, Vegard & Wiborg, Vegard, 2023. "Commitment Ambiguity and Ambition in Climate Pledges," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt7gd693zp, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    7. Andreas Löschel & Dirk Rübbelke, 2014. "On the Voluntary Provision of International Public Goods," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 81(322), pages 195-204, April.
    8. Jon Hovi & Tora Skodvin, 2016. "Editorial to the Issue on Climate Governance and the Paris Agreement," Politics and Governance, Cogitatio Press, vol. 4(3), pages 111-114.
    9. Anna Conte & M. Levati, 2014. "Use of data on planned contributions and stated beliefs in the measurement of social preferences," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 76(2), pages 201-223, February.
    10. Anna Conte & M. Vittoria Levati & Natalia Montinari, 2019. "Experience in public goods experiments," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 86(1), pages 65-93, February.
    11. Engel, Christoph, 2020. "Estimating heterogeneous reactions to experimental treatments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 178(C), pages 124-147.
    12. Christian Elliott & Steven Bernstein & Matthew Hoffmann, 2022. "Credibility dilemmas under the Paris agreement: explaining fossil fuel subsidy reform references in INDCs," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 735-759, December.
    13. Wolfgang Buchholz & Todd Sandler, 2017. "Successful Leadership in Global Public Good Provision: Incorporating Behavioural Approaches," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 67(3), pages 591-607, July.
    14. Laura Silvia Valente Macedo & Pedro Roberto Jacobi, 2019. "Subnational politics of the urban age: evidence from Brazil on integrating global climate goals in the municipal agenda," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 5(1), pages 1-15, December.
    15. Stefano Carattini & Simon Levin & Alessandro Tavoni, 2019. "Cooperation in the Climate Commons," Review of Environmental Economics and Policy, Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 13(2), pages 227-247.
    16. Kurt A. Ackermann & Ryan O. Murphy, 2019. "Explaining Cooperative Behavior in Public Goods Games: How Preferences and Beliefs Affect Contribution Levels," Games, MDPI, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, March.
    17. Robin Watson & Thomas J. H. Morgan & Rachel L. Kendal & Julie Van de Vyver & Jeremy Kendal, 2021. "Social Learning Strategies and Cooperative Behaviour: Evidence of Payoff Bias, but Not Prestige or Conformity, in a Social Dilemma Game," Games, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-26, November.
    18. Simon Gaechter & Benedikt Herrmann & Christian Thoeni, 2010. "Culture and Cooperation," Discussion Papers 2010-09, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
    19. Sander Chan & Idil Boran & Harro van Asselt & Paula Ellinger & Miriam Garcia & Thomas Hale & Lukas Hermwille & Kennedy Liti Mbeva & Ayşem Mert & Charles B. Roger & Amy Weinfurter & Oscar Widerberg & P, 2021. "Climate Ambition and Sustainable Development for a New Decade: A Catalytic Framework," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 12(3), pages 245-259, May.
    20. Stefano F. Verde & Simone Borghesi, 2022. "The International Dimension of the EU Emissions Trading System: Bringing the Pieces Together," Environmental & Resource Economics, Springer;European Association of Environmental and Resource Economists, vol. 83(1), pages 23-46, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:glenvp:v:20:y:2020:i:2:p:83-104. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Kelly McDougall (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://direct.mit.edu/journals .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.