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Institutional and environmental effectiveness: Will the Paris Agreement work?

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  • Radoslav Dimitrov
  • Jon Hovi
  • Detlef F. Sprinz
  • Håkon Sælen
  • Arild Underdal

Abstract

The 2015 Paris Agreement (PA) has been widely hailed as a diplomatic triumph and a breakthrough in global climate cooperation. However, it is commonly accepted that the PA's collective goal—keeping global warming “well below” 2°C above preindustrial levels—remains ambitious. Making matters even more challenging, in 2017, global CO2 emissions resumed growth after 3 years of near standstill. In 2018, this growth accelerated. It is therefore extremely important that the PA's institutional architecture meet expectations concerning its ability to induce member countries to promise and deliver emissions reductions. This study offers a review of the rapidly growing literature on the PA, to assess its strengths and weaknesses, its significance, and its prospects. We focus on evaluations of its institutional structure and its ability to induce member countries to implement policies. We frame the issues as a trilemma: the challenge of simultaneously satisfying all three main conditions for effectiveness—broad participation, deep commitments, and satisfactory compliance rates. Based on our review, we conclude that the key challenge for the PA will likely be to facilitate sufficiently fast ratcheting‐up of nationally determined contributions, while keeping compliance rates high. This article is categorized under: Policy and Governance > Multilevel and Transnational Climate Change Governance

Suggested Citation

  • Radoslav Dimitrov & Jon Hovi & Detlef F. Sprinz & Håkon Sælen & Arild Underdal, 2019. "Institutional and environmental effectiveness: Will the Paris Agreement work?," Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 10(4), July.
  • Handle: RePEc:wly:wirecc:v:10:y:2019:i:4:n:e583
    DOI: 10.1002/wcc.583
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    Cited by:

    1. Tørstad, Vegard & Wiborg, Vegard, 2023. "Commitment Ambiguity and Ambition in Climate Pledges," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt7gd693zp, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.
    2. Suzanne Kingston & Zizhen Wang & Edwin Alblas & Mícheál Callaghan & Julie Foulon & Clodagh Daly & Deirdre Norris, 2022. "Europe’s nature governance revolution: harnessing the shadow of heterarchy," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 22(4), pages 793-824, December.
    3. Sander Chan & Thomas Hale & Andrew Deneault & Manish Shrivastava & Kennedy Mbeva & Victoria Chengo & Joanes Atela, 2022. "Assessing the effectiveness of orchestrated climate action from five years of summits," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 12(7), pages 628-633, July.
    4. Håkon Sælen, 2020. "Under What Conditions Will the Paris Process Produce a Cycle of Increasing Ambition Sufficient to Reach the 2°C Goal?," Global Environmental Politics, MIT Press, vol. 20(2), pages 83-104, May.

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