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The relationship between stock and real estate prices in Turkey : Evidence around the global financial crisis

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  • Asli Yuksel

Abstract

Research on the relationship between stock and real estate prices focuses on two transmission mechanisms, namely the wealth and credit-price effects. This paper uses the 2007 global financial crisis as a natural experiment and examines whether the relationship between real estate prices and stock prices has changed after the outbreak of the crisis by using data from the Turkish market. The results based on a threshold cointegration framework indicate that while both effects exist during the pre-crisis period, only a credit-price effect is observed during the crisis period. Moreover, the findings are sensitive to whether or not one allows for asymmetric error correction.

Suggested Citation

  • Asli Yuksel, 2016. "The relationship between stock and real estate prices in Turkey : Evidence around the global financial crisis," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 16(1), pages 33-40.
    • Handle: RePEc:tcb:cebare:v:16:y:2016:i:1:p:33-40
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    Cited by:

    1. Huseyin Karamelikli, 2016. "Linear and nonlinear dynamics of housing price in Turkey," Ekonomia journal, Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, vol. 46.
    2. Liu, Chao & Zheng, Ying & Zhao, Qi & Wang, Chao, 2020. "Financial stability and real estate price fluctuation in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 540(C).
    3. Sadeq J. Abul, 2019. "The Dynamic Relationship Between Stock and Real Estate Prices in Kuwait," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 11(5), pages 1-30, May.
    4. Demirer, Rıza & Yuksel, Asli & Yuksel, Aydin, 2017. "Flight to quality and the predictability of reversals: The role of market states and global factors," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 1445-1454.
    5. Imran Yousaf & Shoaib Ali, 2020. "Integration between real estate and stock markets: new evidence from Pakistan," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 13(5), pages 887-900, April.
    6. Chi-Wei Su & Xiao-Cui Yin & Hsu-Ling Chang & Hai-Gang Zhou, 2019. "Are the stock and real estate markets integrated in China?," Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination, Springer;Society for Economic Science with Heterogeneous Interacting Agents, vol. 14(4), pages 741-760, December.
    7. Albulescu, C.T. & Bouri, E. & Tiwari, A.K. & Roubaud, D., 2020. "Quantile causality between banking stock and real estate securities returns in the US," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 251-260.
    8. Korhan Gokmenoglu & Siamand Hesami, 2019. "Real estate prices and stock market in Germany: analysis based on hedonic price index," International Journal of Housing Markets and Analysis, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 687-707, April.
    9. Olgun Kitapci & Ömür Tosun & Murat Fatih Tuna & Tarik Turk, 2017. "The Use of Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) in Forecasting Housing Prices in Ankara, Turkey," Journal of Marketing and Consumer Behaviour in Emerging Markets, University of Warsaw, Faculty of Management, vol. 1(5), pages 4-14.
    10. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S, 2018. "How do Stocks in BRICS co-move with REITs?," MPRA Paper 88753, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    11. Pérez, Sergio Iglesias & Moral-Rubio, Santiago & Criado, Regino, 2023. "Combining multiplex networks and time series: A new way to optimize real estate forecasting in New York using cab rides," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 609(C).
    12. K.S.Reddy, 2019. "Pot the ball? Sovereign wealth funds’ outward FDI in times of global financial market turbulence: A yield institutions-based view," Central Bank Review, Research and Monetary Policy Department, Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey, vol. 19(4), pages 129-139.
    13. Gil-Alana, Luis A. & Yaya, OlaOluwa S. & Akinsomi, Omokolade & Coskun, Yener, 2020. "How do stocks in BRICS co-move with real estate stocks?," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 93-101.
    14. Salami, Monsurat Ayojimi & Tanrıvermiş, Harun & Tanrıvermiş, Yesim, 2024. "Influence of Ukraine invasion by Russia on Turkish markets," The Journal of Economic Asymmetries, Elsevier, vol. 29(C).
    15. Xiaogang Song & Shufan Zhai & Na Zhou, 2024. "The Carbon Emissions from Public Buildings in China: A Systematic Analysis of Evolution and Spillover Effects," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 16(15), pages 1-22, August.
    16. Abul, Sadeq & Al-Kandari, Ahmad M., 2020. "Real Estate Market and Macroeconomic Factors in Kuwait: An ARDL Approach," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 73(3), pages 405-434.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Credit-price effect; Wealth effect; Threshold error-correction model; Causality;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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