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Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Cocoa Markets

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  • Williams Ohemeng
  • Bo Sjo
  • Michael Danquah

Abstract

This paper tests the efficiency and price discovery mechanism in the cocoa cash and futures markets over the period March 1981–August 2009. The results indicate that the price discovery is done in the cash market and spreads to the futures markets and that the futures price can be seen as an unbiased predictor of future cash prices. There is no sign of a risk premium in the futures price. Since the cash behaves like a random walk we cannot reject market efficiency.

Suggested Citation

  • Williams Ohemeng & Bo Sjo & Michael Danquah, 2016. "Market Efficiency and Price Discovery in Cocoa Markets," Journal of African Business, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 209-224, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:wjabxx:v:17:y:2016:i:2:p:209-224
    DOI: 10.1080/15228916.2016.1142801
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Maile, Felix, 2020. "Cooperation or confrontation? Public and private governance and smallholders' incomes in the cocoa sector in Ghana and in Côte d'Ivoire," ÖFSE-Forum, Austrian Foundation for Development Research (ÖFSE), volume 74, number 74.
    2. Bensch, Gunther & Kaestner, Kathrin & Vance, Colin, 2023. "Pass-through of cocoa prices along the supply chain: What's left for farmers in Côte D'Ivoire?," Ruhr Economic Papers 1035, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.

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