IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/uitjxx/v29y2015i3p228-250.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Exchange Rate Shocks and U.S. Services and Agricultural Exports: Which Export Sector is More Affected?

Author

Listed:
  • Andrew Ojede

Abstract

In this article, a vector autoregressive model is constructed with monthly data from 1992:1 to 2009:12 to investigate the exchange rate propagation mechanisms to real exports of U.S. services and agricultural sectors. Using plausible identification assumptions consistent with many open economy macro models, the results indicate that exchange rate shocks impact services exports more than they do on agricultural exports. Moreover, the shocks are more persistent on services relative to agricultural exports.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrew Ojede, 2015. "Exchange Rate Shocks and U.S. Services and Agricultural Exports: Which Export Sector is More Affected?," The International Trade Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(3), pages 228-250, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:uitjxx:v:29:y:2015:i:3:p:228-250
    DOI: 10.1080/08853908.2015.1024900
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/08853908.2015.1024900
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/08853908.2015.1024900?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ethier, Wilfred, 1973. "International Trade and the Forward Exchange Market," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 63(3), pages 494-503, June.
    2. Obstfeld, Maurice & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2000. "New directions for stochastic open economy models," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 117-153, February.
    3. Grilli, Vittorio & Roubini, Nouriel, 1996. "Liquidity models in open economies: Theory and empirical evidence," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 847-859, April.
    4. Charalambos Pattichis, 2012. "Exchange rate effects on trade in services," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(6), pages 697-708, October.
    5. Burstein, Ariel & Eichenbaum, Martin & Rebelo, Sergio, 2007. "Modeling exchange rate passthrough after large devaluations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(2), pages 346-368, March.
    6. M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin & Richard J. Smith, 2001. "Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 289-326.
    7. Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
    8. Gita Gopinath & Roberto Rigobon, 2008. "Sticky Borders," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 123(2), pages 531-575.
    9. Cooley, Thomas F. & Leroy, Stephen F., 1985. "Atheoretical macroeconometrics: A critique," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 283-308, November.
    10. Bernanke, Ben S & Blinder, Alan S, 1992. "The Federal Funds Rate and the Channels of Monetary Transmission," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(4), pages 901-921, September.
    11. Michael B. Devereux & Charles Engel, 2003. "Monetary Policy in the Open Economy Revisited: Price Setting and Exchange-Rate Flexibility," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 70(4), pages 765-783.
    12. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    13. Mr. Sergio Rebelo & Ms. Piyabha Kongsamut & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," IMF Working Papers 2001/085, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Bernanke, Ben S., 1986. "Alternative explanations of the money-income correlation," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 25(1), pages 49-99, January.
    15. Morris Goldstein & Mohsin S. Khan, 2017. "The Supply and Demand for Exports: A Simultaneous Approach," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: TRADE CURRENCIES AND FINANCE, chapter 2, pages 83-104, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    16. Hsing, Han-Min, 2005. "Re-examination of J-curve effect for Japan, Korea and Taiwan," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 43-58, January.
    17. Moses Muse Sichei & Chris Harmse & Frans Kanfer, 2007. "Determinants Of South Africa‐Us Intra‐Industry Trade In Services: A Wild Bootstrap Dynamic Panel Data Analysis1," South African Journal of Economics, Economic Society of South Africa, vol. 75(3), pages 521-539, September.
    18. Sims, Christopher A., 1992. "Interpreting the macroeconomic time series facts : The effects of monetary policy," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 36(5), pages 975-1000, June.
    19. Richard Baldwin & Paul Krugman, 1989. "Persistent Trade Effects of Large Exchange Rate Shocks," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 104(4), pages 635-654.
    20. Uy, Timothy & Yi, Kei-Mu & Zhang, Jing, 2013. "Structural change in an open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(6), pages 667-682.
    21. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Niroomand, Farhang, 1998. "Long-run price elasticities and the Marshall-Lerner condition revisited," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 101-109, October.
    22. Gordon, David B & Leeper, Eric M, 1994. "The Dynamic Impacts of Monetary Policy: An Exercise in Tentative Identification," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 102(6), pages 1228-1247, December.
    23. Piyabha Kongsamut & Sergio Rebelo & Danyang Xie, 2001. "Beyond Balanced Growth," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(4), pages 869-882.
    24. Mohsen Bahmani‐Oskooee & Scott W. Hegerty, 2010. "The J‐ and S‐curves: a survey of the recent literature," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 37(6), pages 580-596, November.
    25. Burda, Michael C & Gerlach, Stefan, 1992. "Intertemporal Prices and the U.S. Trade Balance," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 82(5), pages 1234-1253, December.
    26. Koray, Faik & Lastrapes, William D, 1989. "Real Exchange Rate Volatility and U.S. Bilateral Trade: A VAR Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 71(4), pages 708-712, November.
    27. Myint Moe Chit & Marian Rizov & Dirk Willenbockel, 2010. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Exports: New Empirical Evidence from the Emerging East Asian Economies," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 33(2), pages 239-263, February.
    28. WenShwo Fang & YiHao Lai & Stephen M. Miller, 2006. "Export Promotion through Exchange Rate Changes: Exchange Rate Depreciation or Stabilization," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 611-626, January.
    29. Kim, Soyoung & Roubini, Nouriel, 2000. "Exchange rate anomalies in the industrial countries: A solution with a structural VAR approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 561-586, June.
    30. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Scott Hegerty, 2010. "Bounds testing cointegration methods and PPP: evidence from 123 Countries," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(14), pages 1335-1340.
    31. Tenreyro, Silvana, 2007. "On the trade impact of nominal exchange rate volatility," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 82(2), pages 485-508, March.
    32. Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
    33. Perron, Pierre, 1989. "The Great Crash, the Oil Price Shock, and the Unit Root Hypothesis," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(6), pages 1361-1401, November.
    34. Fukunari Kimura & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2006. "The Gravity Equation in International Trade in Services," Review of World Economics (Weltwirtschaftliches Archiv), Springer;Institut für Weltwirtschaft (Kiel Institute for the World Economy), vol. 142(1), pages 92-121, April.
    35. Michael D. McKenzie, 1999. "The Impact of Exchange Rate Volatility on International Trade Flows," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(1), pages 71-106, February.
    36. Marquez, Jaime, 1990. "Bilateral Trade Elasticities," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 72(1), pages 70-77, February.
    37. Charalambos Pattichis, 2012. "Exchange rate effects on trade in services," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing, vol. 39(6), pages 697-708, December.
    38. Catherine L. Mann, 2002. "Perspectives on the U.S. Current Account Deficit and Sustainability," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 16(3), pages 131-152, Summer.
    39. Bahmani-Oskooee, Mohsen & Harvey, Hanafiah & Hegerty, Scott W., 2014. "Exchange rate volatility and Spanish-American commodity trade flows," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 243-260.
    40. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Ruixin Zhang, 2013. "The J-curve: evidence from commodity trade between UK and China," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 45(31), pages 4369-4378, November.
    41. Mohsen Bahmani-Oskooee & Zohre Ardalani, 2006. "Exchange Rate Sensitivity of U.S. Trade Flows: Evidence from Industry Data," Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 72(3), pages 542-559, January.
    42. Rahman, Sajjadur & Serletis, Apostolos, 2009. "The effects of exchange rate uncertainty on exports," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 500-507, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Iwegbu, Onyebuchi & Nwaogwugwu, Isaac Chiawolam, 2019. "Effect of Exchange Rate Shock on Key Sectors of the Nigerian Economy," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 507-533.
    2. Nathan Audu & Titus Obiezue, 2022. "Exchange Rate and Trade in Services Nexus in Nigeria: A Non-Linear ARDL Approach," Athens Journal of Business & Economics, Athens Institute for Education and Research (ATINER), vol. 8(1), pages 79-96, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2013. "Monetary Policy and the Real Economy: A Structural VAR Approach for Sri Lanka," GRIPS Discussion Papers 13-13, National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies.
    2. Thanabalasingam Vinayagathasan, 2014. "Monetary policy and the real economy: A structural VAR approach for Sri Lanka," Asian Journal of Empirical Research, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 4(1), pages 41-64, January.
    3. Mai, Nhat Chi, 2016. "Monetary policies and the macroeconomic performance of Vietnam," OSF Preprints akzy4, Center for Open Science.
    4. Kim, Soyoung, 2001. "International transmission of U.S. monetary policy shocks: Evidence from VAR's," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 48(2), pages 339-372, October.
    5. Mishra, Ankita & Mishra, Vinod, 2012. "Inflation targeting in India: A comparison with the multiple indicator approach," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 86-98.
    6. Eric Parrado H., 2001. "Foreign Shocks and Monetary Policy Transmission in Chile," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 4(3), pages 29-57, December.
    7. Jonathan M. Chipili, 2013. "Exchange Rate Volatility and Trade Flows in Zambia," African Development Review, African Development Bank, vol. 25(1), pages 55-66, March.
    8. Christiano, Lawrence J. & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles L., 1999. "Monetary policy shocks: What have we learned and to what end?," Handbook of Macroeconomics, in: J. B. Taylor & M. Woodford (ed.), Handbook of Macroeconomics, edition 1, volume 1, chapter 2, pages 65-148, Elsevier.
    9. B. Mojon, 1999. "Monetary policy under a quasi-fixed exchange rate regime. The case of France between 1987 and 1996," BNL Quarterly Review, Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, vol. 52(211), pages 401-430.
    10. Jean Louis, Rosmy & Brown, Ryan & Balli, Faruk, 2011. "On the feasibility of monetary union: Does it make sense to look for shocks symmetry across countries when none of the countries constitutes an optimum currency area?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 2701-2718.
    11. Rokon Bhuiyan, 2012. "Monetary transmission mechanisms in a small open economy: a Bayesian structural VAR approach," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 45(3), pages 1037-1061, August.
    12. Uhlig, Harald, 2005. "What are the effects of monetary policy on output? Results from an agnostic identification procedure," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(2), pages 381-419, March.
    13. Par Osterholm, 2008. "A structural Bayesian VAR for model-based fan charts," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(12), pages 1557-1569.
    14. Fung, Ben Siu-cheong & Kasumovich, Marcel, 1998. "Monetary shocks in the G-6 countries: Is there a puzzle?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(3), pages 575-592, October.
    15. Uhlig, H.F.H.V.S., 1999. "What are the Effects of Monetary Policy on Output? Results from an Agnostic Identification Procedure," Other publications TiSEM 2e0fa8dd-ead5-4c6b-97cb-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    16. Auer, Simone, 2019. "Monetary policy shocks and foreign investment income: Evidence from a large Bayesian VAR," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-166.
    17. Benoît Mojon, 1998. "Monetary Policy Under a Fixed Exchange Rate Regime, the Case of France 1987-1996," Working Papers 1998-14, CEPII research center.
    18. Soyoung Kim, 2013. "Vector autoregressive models for macroeconomic policy analysis," Chapters, in: Nigar Hashimzade & Michael A. Thornton (ed.), Handbook of Research Methods and Applications in Empirical Macroeconomics, chapter 23, pages 555-572, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    19. Dawid J. van Lill, 2017. "Changes in the Liquidity Effect Over Time: Evidence from Four Monetary Policy Regimes," Working Papers 704, Economic Research Southern Africa.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:uitjxx:v:29:y:2015:i:3:p:228-250. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/uitj20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.