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Pension Plan Valuation and Mortality Projection

Author

Listed:
  • Hélène Cossette
  • Antoine Delwarde
  • Michel Denuit
  • Frédérick Guillot
  • Étienne Marceau

Abstract

It is now well documented that human mortality globally declined during the course of the twentieth century. These mortality improvements pose a challenge for pricing and reserving in life insurance and for the management of public pension regimes. Assuming a further continuation of the stable pace of mortality decline, a Poisson log-bilinear projection model is applied to population mortality data to forecast future death rates. Then a relational model embedded in a Poisson regression approach is used to merge a dynamic mortality table based on data of a large population (in this case the Canadian province of Quebec) to mortality data of a given pension plan (here the Régie des Rentes du Québec) to create another dynamic mortality table, which can be used to make any assessments on the total costs of the pension plan. We provide at the end numerical examples that illustrate the impact of mortality improvements on a pension plan.

Suggested Citation

  • Hélène Cossette & Antoine Delwarde & Michel Denuit & Frédérick Guillot & Étienne Marceau, 2007. "Pension Plan Valuation and Mortality Projection," North American Actuarial Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(2), pages 1-34.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:uaajxx:v:11:y:2007:i:2:p:1-34
    DOI: 10.1080/10920277.2007.10597445
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. S. Haberman & A. E. Renshaw, 2009. "Measurement of Longevity Risk Using Bootstrapping for Lee–Carter and Generalised Linear Poisson Models of Mortality," Methodology and Computing in Applied Probability, Springer, vol. 11(3), pages 443-461, September.
    2. Stevens, Ralph & De Waegenaere, Anja & Melenberg, Bertrand, 2010. "Longevity risk in pension annuities with exchange options: The effect of product design," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(1), pages 222-234, February.
    3. Anja De Waegenaere & Bertrand Melenberg & Ralph Stevens, 2010. "Longevity Risk," De Economist, Springer, vol. 158(2), pages 151-192, June.
    4. Neves, César & Fernandes, Cristiano & Hoeltgebaum, Henrique, 2017. "Five different distributions for the Lee–Carter model of mortality forecasting: A comparison using GAS models," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 48-57.
    5. Stevens, R.S.P. & De Waegenaere, A.M.B. & Melenberg, B., 2011. "Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk," Other publications TiSEM a3e07689-4b6b-4987-852c-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    6. Helena Chuliá & Montserrat Guillén & Jorge M. Uribe, 2015. "Mortality and Longevity Risks in the United Kingdom: Dynamic Factor Models and Copula-Functions," Working Papers 2015-03, Universitat de Barcelona, UB Riskcenter.
    7. Stevens, R.S.P. & De Waegenaere, A.M.B. & Melenberg, B., 2011. "Longevity Risk and Natural Hedge Potential in Portfolios Of Life Insurance Products : The Effect of Investment Risk," Discussion Paper 2011-036, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    8. Rachel WINGENBACH & Jong-Min KIM & Hojin JUNG, 2020. "Living Longer in High Longevity Risk," JODE - Journal of Demographic Economics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 86(1), pages 47-86, March.

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