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Transport policy scenario-building

Author

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  • Dominic Stead
  • David Banister

Abstract

Long-term planning decisions must be as robust as possible to withstand such changes in the policy-making environment. This calls for a new approach for identifying how policies might fare under different types of conditions and for identifying robust no-regrets strategies. This paper outlines a systematic and logical framework for the development of policy scenarios and shows how scenarios can be used in the analysis of future policy options. The article discusses how scenario analysis can be used to identify, anticipate and assess policy options for the future in an environment of uncertainty, mainly using examples of transport policy in Europe.

Suggested Citation

  • Dominic Stead & David Banister, 2003. "Transport policy scenario-building," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(6), pages 513-536, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:26:y:2003:i:6:p:513-536
    DOI: 10.1080/0308106032000167382
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Dorina Pojani & Dominic Stead, 2015. "Sustainable Urban Transport in the Developing World: Beyond Megacities," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 7(6), pages 1-22, June.
    2. von der Gracht, Heiko A. & Darkow, Inga-Lena, 2010. "Scenarios for the logistics services industry: A Delphi-based analysis for 2025," International Journal of Production Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(1), pages 46-59, September.
    3. Cascetta, Ennio & Cartenì, Armando & Pagliara, Francesca & Montanino, Marcello, 2015. "A new look at planning and designing transportation systems: A decision-making model based on cognitive rationality, stakeholder engagement and quantitative methods," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 27-39.
    4. Uijin Jung & Jinseo Lee & Ji-Young Choi & Hyun Yim & Myoung-Jin Lee, 2023. "Future Service Robot Scenarios in South Korea," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(22), pages 1-19, November.
    5. González-González, Esther & Nogués, Soledad & Stead, Dominic, 2020. "Parking futures: Preparing European cities for the advent of automated vehicles," Land Use Policy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    6. Helena Sustar & Miloš N. Mladenović & Moshe Givoni, 2020. "The Landscape of Envisioning and Speculative Design Methods for Sustainable Mobility Futures," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(6), pages 1-24, March.
    7. Zanni, Alberto M & Goulden, Murray & Ryley, Tim & Dingwall, Robert, 2017. "Improving scenario methods in infrastructure planning: A case study of long distance travel and mobility in the UK under extreme weather uncertainty and a changing climate," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 180-197.

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