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Improving scenario methods in infrastructure planning: A case study of long distance travel and mobility in the UK under extreme weather uncertainty and a changing climate

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  • Zanni, Alberto M
  • Goulden, Murray
  • Ryley, Tim
  • Dingwall, Robert

Abstract

This paper develops a mixed method approach to infrastructure planning through a United Kingdom (UK) case study examining the impact of a changing climate on long distance travel and mobility between London and Glasgow. A novel combination of a qualitative method - Systematic Qualitative Foresight (SQF) - and quantitative simulation using discrete choice stated preference methods is applied. The main dataset is a travel behaviour survey of over 2000 residents of London and Glasgow. Three illustrative SQF-based scenarios are developed incorporating society, technology and climate dimensions. For each scenario, the choice of long-distance travel mode by two groups of respondents generated by cluster analysis is simulated using stated preference survey data to describe the choices likely to be made by actors within each scenario.

Suggested Citation

  • Zanni, Alberto M & Goulden, Murray & Ryley, Tim & Dingwall, Robert, 2017. "Improving scenario methods in infrastructure planning: A case study of long distance travel and mobility in the UK under extreme weather uncertainty and a changing climate," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 180-197.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:tefoso:v:115:y:2017:i:c:p:180-197
    DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2016.10.002
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    Cited by:

    1. Edward Oughton, 2018. "Towards 5G: scenario-based assessment of the future supply and demand for mobile telecommunications infrastructure," Working Papers 2017/04 (revised), Cambridge Judge Business School, University of Cambridge.
    2. Yuan, Yali & Yang, Xiaobao & Zhang, Junyi & Song, Dongdong & Yue, Xianfei, 2024. "Adaptive behavior of intercity travelers within urban agglomeration in response to adverse weather: Accounting for multilayer unobserved heterogeneity," Transport Policy, Elsevier, vol. 153(C), pages 141-158.
    3. Adel Ben Youssef & Adelina Zeqiri, 2022. "Hospitality Industry 4.0 and Climate Change," Circular Economy and Sustainability, Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 1043-1063, September.
    4. Yang, Xiaobao & Yue, Xianfei & Sun, Huijun & Gao, Ziyou & Wang, Wencheng, 2021. "Impact of weather on freeway origin-destination volume in China," Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, Elsevier, vol. 143(C), pages 30-47.

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