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Globalization and the global environment: Four quantitative scenarios

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  • Arjan Lejour

Abstract

This article presents a simulation of four quantitative scenarios using the applied general equilibrium model WorldScan . The scenarios are constructed to study the effects of globalization on transport and the environment. They contain different assumptions on the degree of globalization, technical progress, migration and energy policies. WorldScan focuses on long-term economic growth, trade and specialization patterns. It quantifies the economic content of the scenarios and the volume growth of energy and emissions between 1995 and 2050. The scenario outcomes show that emission growth quadruples with high economic growth without any energy-efficient technologies and environmental legislation. However, in an ecological scenario which combines energy-efficient technologies, environmental legislation and modest economic growth, global emissions hardly increase.

Suggested Citation

  • Arjan Lejour, 2003. "Globalization and the global environment: Four quantitative scenarios," Transportation Planning and Technology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(1), pages 9-40, February.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:transp:v:26:y:2003:i:1:p:9-40
    DOI: 10.1080/03081060309911
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ahuja,Vinod Kumar & Filmer,Deon P., 1995. "Educational attainments in developing countries : new estimates and projections disaggregated by gender," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1489, The World Bank.
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    1. Arjan Lejour, 2003. "Quantifying four scenarios for Europe," CPB Document 38, CPB Netherlands Bureau for Economic Policy Analysis.

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