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Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement

Author

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  • James Glynn
  • Maurizio Gargiulo
  • Alessandro Chiodi
  • Paul Deane
  • Fionn Rogan
  • Brian Ó Gallachóir

Abstract

The Paris Agreement is the last hope to keep global temperature rise below 2°C. The consensus agrees to holding the increase in global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels, and to aim for 1.5°C. Each Party’s successive nationally determined contribution (NDC) will represent a progression beyond the party’s then current NDC, and reflect its highest possible ambition. Using Ireland as a test case, we show that increased mitigation ambition is required to meet the Paris Agreement goals in contrast to current EU policy goals of an 80–95% reduction by 2050. For the 1.5°C consistent carbon budgets, the technically feasible scenarios' abatement costs rise to greater than €8,100/tCO2 by 2050. The greatest economic impact is in the short term. Annual GDP growth rates in the period to 2020 reduce from 4% to 2.2% in the 1.5°C scenario. While aiming for net zero emissions beyond 2050, investment decisions in the next 5–10 years are critical to prevent carbon lock-in.Key policy insights Economic growth can be maintained in Ireland while rapidly decarbonizing the energy system.The social cost of carbon needs to be included as standard in valuation of infrastructure investment planning, both by government finance departments and private investors.Technological feasibility is not the limiting factor in achieving rapid deep decarbonization.Immediate increased decarbonization ambition over the next 3–5 years is critical to achieve the Paris Agreement goals, acknowledging the current 80–95% reduction target is not consistent with temperature goals of ‘well below’ 2°C and pursuing 1.5°C.Applying carbon budgets to the energy system results in non-linear CO2 emissions reductions over time, which contrast with current EU policy targets, and the implied optimal climate policy and mitigation investment strategy.

Suggested Citation

  • James Glynn & Maurizio Gargiulo & Alessandro Chiodi & Paul Deane & Fionn Rogan & Brian Ó Gallachóir, 2019. "Zero carbon energy system pathways for Ireland consistent with the Paris Agreement," Climate Policy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(1), pages 30-42, January.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:tcpoxx:v:19:y:2019:i:1:p:30-42
    DOI: 10.1080/14693062.2018.1464893
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Coppens, Léo & Gargiulo, Maurizio & Orsini, Marco & Arnould, Nathalie, 2022. "Achieving −55% GHG emissions in 2030 in Wallonia, Belgium: Insights from the TIMES-Wal energy system model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 164(C).
    2. Bryan K. Mignone & Leon Clarke & James A. Edmonds & Angelo Gurgel & Howard J. Herzog & Jeremiah X. Johnson & Dharik S. Mallapragada & Haewon McJeon & Jennifer Morris & Patrick R. O’Rourke & Sergey Pal, 2024. "Drivers and implications of alternative routes to fuels decarbonization in net-zero energy systems," Nature Communications, Nature, vol. 15(1), pages 1-14, December.
    3. Scheepers, Martin & Palacios, Silvana Gamboa & Jegu, Elodie & Nogueira, Larissa P. & Rutten, Loes & van Stralen, Joost & Smekens, Koen & West, Kira & van der Zwaan, Bob, 2022. "Towards a climate-neutral energy system in the Netherlands," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 158(C).
    4. Seck, Gondia S. & Hache, Emmanuel & Sabathier, Jerome & Guedes, Fernanda & Reigstad, Gunhild A. & Straus, Julian & Wolfgang, Ove & Ouassou, Jabir A. & Askeland, Magnus & Hjorth, Ida & Skjelbred, Hans , 2022. "Hydrogen and the decarbonization of the energy system in europe in 2050: A detailed model-based analysis," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 167(C).
    5. Demetriou, E. & Mallouppas, G. & Hadjistassou, C., 2021. "Embracing carbon neutral electricity and transportation sectors in Cyprus," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 229(C).

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