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How would the Rogun Dam affect water and energy scarcity in Central Asia?

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  • Maksud Bekchanov
  • Claudia Ringler
  • Anik Bhaduri
  • Marc Jeuland

Abstract

The construction of the Rogun Dam in the Amu Darya Basin to increase upstream energy generation creates potential trade-offs with existing downstream irrigation, due to the different timing of energy and irrigation water demands. The present analysis, based on a hydro-economic optimization model, shows that cooperative basin-wide maximization of benefits would lead to large increases in upstream hydropower production and only minor changes in downstream irrigation benefits. However, if upstream stations, including Rogun, are managed unilaterally to maximize energy production, hydropower benefits might more than double while irrigation benefits greatly decrease, thereby substantially reducing overall basin benefits.

Suggested Citation

  • Maksud Bekchanov & Claudia Ringler & Anik Bhaduri & Marc Jeuland, 2015. "How would the Rogun Dam affect water and energy scarcity in Central Asia?," Water International, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(5-6), pages 856-876, September.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rwinxx:v:40:y:2015:i:5-6:p:856-876
    DOI: 10.1080/02508060.2015.1051788
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Russian," IWMI Books, Reports H041260, International Water Management Institute.
    2. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture," IWMI Books, Reports H040193, International Water Management Institute.
    3. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary. In Arabic," IWMI Books, Reports H041261, International Water Management Institute.
    4. Cai, Ximing & Ringler, Claudia & Rosegrant, Mark W., 2006. "Modeling water resources management at the basin level: methodology and application to the Maipo River Basin," Research reports 149, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
    5. Molden, David, 2007. "Water for food, water for life: a comprehensive assessment of water management in agriculture: summary," IWMI Books, Reports H039769, International Water Management Institute.
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    Cited by:

    1. Jacob D. Petersen-Perlman & Itay Fischhendler, 2018. "The weakness of the strong: re-examining power in transboundary water dynamics," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 18(2), pages 275-294, April.
    2. Qin, Jingxiu & Duan, Weili & Chen, Yaning & Dukhovny, Viktor A. & Sorokin, Denis & Li, Yupeng & Wang, Xuanxuan, 2022. "Comprehensive evaluation and sustainable development of water–energy–food–ecology systems in Central Asia," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    3. Zulfiya Suleimenova, 2020. "Water security in Central Asia and Southern Caucasus," Asia-Pacific Sustainable Development Journal, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific (ESCAP), vol. 27(1), pages 75-93, June.
    4. Foster, T. & Brozović, N., 2018. "Simulating Crop-Water Production Functions Using Crop Growth Models to Support Water Policy Assessments," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 9-21.
    5. Magalhaes, M. & Ringler, C. & Verma, Shilp & Schmitter, Petra, 2021. "Accelerating rural energy access for agricultural transformation: contribution of the CGIAR Research Program on Water, Land and Ecosystems to transforming food, land and water systems in a climate cri," IWMI Books, Reports H050910, International Water Management Institute.
    6. Mark Zeitoun & Ana Elisa Cascão & Jeroen Warner & Naho Mirumachi & Nathanial Matthews & Filippo Menga & Rebecca Farnum, 2017. "Transboundary water interaction III: contest and compliance," International Environmental Agreements: Politics, Law and Economics, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 271-294, April.
    7. Parkinson, Simon C. & Makowski, Marek & Krey, Volker & Sedraoui, Khaled & Almasoud, Abdulrahman H. & Djilali, Ned, 2018. "A multi-criteria model analysis framework for assessing integrated water-energy system transformation pathways," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 210(C), pages 477-486.

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