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Trust and fertility in uncertain times

Author

Listed:
  • Arnstein Aassve
  • Marco Le Moglie
  • Letizia Mencarini

Abstract

Recent studies have shown higher uncertainty to be associated with fertility decline. This study considers the role of social trust as a coping mechanism when general uncertainty increases. We analyse the fertility data of Italian provinces from 2004 to 2013, thereby incorporating the period of economic recession, which unexpectedly and exogenously increased uncertainty across the population. We find a robust and significantly positive impact of social trust on fertility, which is stronger among younger age groups. Moreover, we find that the buffer effect of trust decreases with the level of public childcare provision, suggesting that low trust endowments may be counterbalanced through public policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Arnstein Aassve & Marco Le Moglie & Letizia Mencarini, 2021. "Trust and fertility in uncertain times," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 75(1), pages 19-36, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:75:y:2021:i:1:p:19-36
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2020.1742927
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    Cited by:

    1. Shichao Du & Chin-Han Chan, 2023. "Baby Boom or Baby Bust After the COVID-19 Onset in the United States? Evidence from an ARIMA Time-Series Analysis," Population Research and Policy Review, Springer;Southern Demographic Association (SDA), vol. 42(6), pages 1-22, December.
    2. Arnstein Aassve & Letizia Mencarini & Elena Pirani & Daniele Vignoli, 2023. "The last bastion is falling: Survey evidence of the new demographic reality in Italy," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2023_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
    3. Giannantoni, Costanza & Rodríguez-Pose, Andrés, 2024. "Regional government institutions and the capacity for women to reconcile career and motherhood," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 125631, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    4. Sara Bisi & Nadia Sturm & Jan Van Bavel, 2024. "Climate change and fertility desires: An experimental study among university students in Belgium and Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 51(2), pages 17-48.
    5. Tatsuki Inoue amd Erika Igarashi, 2023. "The far-reaching effects of bombing on fertility in mid-20th century Japan," Papers 2306.05770, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
    6. Yuqing Geng & Xinying Jiang & Yan Yan & Juan Gao & Jianyi Li, 2024. "Toward sustainability: mechanism between work–family balance and fertility intention with decent work as the mediating role," Palgrave Communications, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 11(1), pages 1-12, December.
    7. Giacomo Caracciolo & Salvatore Lo Bello & Dario Pellegrino, 2021. "An assessment on the potential impact of COVID-19 on the Italian demographic structure," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 622, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    8. Daniela Bellani & Bruno Arpino & Daniele Vignoli, 2021. "Time preferences and fertility: Evidence from Italy," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 44(50), pages 1185-1228.
    9. Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J. & Lockwood, Ben, 2024. "Are environmental concerns deterring people from having children? Longitudinal evidence on births in the UK," Ecological Economics, Elsevier, vol. 220(C).
    10. Lockwood, Ben & Powdthavee, Nattavudh & Oswald, Andrew J., 2022. "Are Environmental Concerns Deterring People from Having Children?," IZA Discussion Papers 15620, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    11. Idriss Fontaine & Sabine Garabedian & Hélène Vérèmes, 2024. "Tropical cyclones and fertility: New evidence from developing countries," Post-Print hal-04717646, HAL.
    12. Sofi Ohlsson-Wijk & Gunnar Andersson, 2022. "Disentangling the Swedish fertility decline of the 2010s," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 47(12), pages 345-358.

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