Climate change and fertility desires: An experimental study among university students in Belgium and Italy

Background: As more people recognise the challenges of climate change, an increasing number are trying to reduce their ecological footprint. However, it remains uncertain whether this extends to decisions about having children. Despite public debate, scholarly research remains scarce. Objective: Our aim is to explore whether and how vignettes about climate change impact short-term fertility desires among young adults, and how this may be moderated by perceived personal responsibility and satisfaction with the government. Methods: We conducted an online experiment with university students from Belgium (N = 262) and Italy (N = 169). Respondents not in the control group were exposed to either a pessimistic or a more optimistic climate change vignette before being asked about their fertility desires. Multinomial regression was used for hypothesis testing. Results: The exposure to a pessimistic scenario increased the likelihood of low fertility desire in both Belgian and Italian respondents compared to their control groups. Following the optimistic scenario, Belgians reported a higher probability of high desire, while Italians experienced effects similar to those exposed to the pessimistic scenario. These differences were moderated by feelings of personal responsibility and satisfaction with government’s actions. Conclusions: Respondents’ fertility desires were negatively affected by the pessimistic climate change scenario regardless of their nationality, with notable variation according to perceived responsibility and satisfaction with government actions. Contribution: This paper addresses the current research gap in the literature on climate change concerns and fertility desires through the use of an experiment-based study.