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The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993–2011

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  • Margaret Frye
  • Lauren Bachan

Abstract

This paper examines the decline in non-numeric responses to questions about fertility preferences among women in the developing world. These types of response—such as ‘don’t know’ or ‘it’s up to God’—have often been interpreted through the lens of fertility transition theory as an indication that reproduction has not yet entered women’s ‘calculus of conscious choice’. However, this has yet to be investigated cross-nationally and over time. Using 19 years of data from 32 countries, we find that non-numeric fertility preferences decline most substantially in the early stages of a country’s fertility transition. Using country-specific and multilevel models, we explore the individual- and contextual-level characteristics associated with women’s likelihood of providing a non-numeric response to questions about their fertility preferences. Non-numeric fertility preferences are influenced by a host of social factors, with educational attainment and knowledge of contraception being the most robust and consistent predictors.

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  • Margaret Frye & Lauren Bachan, 2017. "The demography of words: The global decline in non-numeric fertility preferences, 1993–2011," Population Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 71(2), pages 187-209, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpstxx:v:71:y:2017:i:2:p:187-209
    DOI: 10.1080/00324728.2017.1304565
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    1. J. Scott Long & Jeremy Freese, 2006. "Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables using Stata, 2nd Edition," Stata Press books, StataCorp LP, edition 2, number long2, March.
    2. Easterlin, Richard A. & Crimmins, Eileen M., 1985. "The Fertility Revolution," University of Chicago Press Economics Books, University of Chicago Press, number 9780226180298, June.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dana Sarnak & Stan Becker, 2022. "Accuracy of wives' proxy reports of husbands' fertility preferences in sub-Saharan Africa," Demographic Research, Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research, Rostock, Germany, vol. 46(17), pages 503-546.
    2. Brian C. Thiede & Matthew Hancock & Ahmed Kodouda & James Piazza, 2020. "Exposure to Armed Conflict and Fertility in Sub-Saharan Africa," Demography, Springer;Population Association of America (PAA), vol. 57(6), pages 2113-2141, December.
    3. Melanie Dawn Channon & Sarah Harper, 2019. "Educational differentials in the realisation of fertility intentions: Is sub-Saharan Africa different?," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 14(7), pages 1-14, July.
    4. Cort, David A. & Tu, Hsin Fei, 2018. "Safety in stigmatizing? Instrumental stigma beliefs and protective sexual behavior in Sub-Saharan Africa," Social Science & Medicine, Elsevier, vol. 197(C), pages 144-152.
    5. Endale Kebede, 2019. "The Relative Importance of Female Education on Fertility Desires in Sub-Saharan Africa: A Multi-Level Analysis," VID Working Papers 1909, Vienna Institute of Demography (VID) of the Austrian Academy of Sciences in Vienna.

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