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Vladimir Putin's last stand: the sources of Russia's Ukraine policy

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  • Andrei Tsygankov

Abstract

The paper studies Russia's Ukraine policy since the Orange Revolution. Russia's policy toward its western neighbor has evolved from unhappy relations with Victor Yushchenko to rapprochement with Victor Yanukovich and then confrontation over the revolutionary power change in Kiev in February 2014. The paper argues that Vladimir Putin's actions following February revolution in Kiev demonstrate both change and continuity in Russia's foreign policy. Although these actions constituted a major escalation, relative to Russia's previous behavior toward Ukraine, the escalation of relations with Kiev also reflected a broader policy pattern of Russia's assertive relations with the Western nations adopted by the Kremlin since the mid-2000s. What made Russia's conflict with Ukraine possible, even inevitable, was the West's lack of recognition for Russia's values and interests in Eurasia, on the one hand, and the critically important role that Ukraine played in the Kremlin's foreign policy calculations, on the other. The paper provides an empirically grounded interpretation of Russia's changing policy that emphasizes Russia–Ukraine–West interaction and a mutually reinforcing dynamics of their misunderstanding. It also addresses four alternative explanations of Russia's Ukraine policy and discusses several dangers and possible solutions to the crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrei Tsygankov, 2015. "Vladimir Putin's last stand: the sources of Russia's Ukraine policy," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(4), pages 279-303, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rpsaxx:v:31:y:2015:i:4:p:279-303
    DOI: 10.1080/1060586X.2015.1005903
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    Cited by:

    1. Una Hakvåg, 2017. "Russian defense spending after 2010: the interplay of personal, domestic, and foreign policy interests," Post-Soviet Affairs, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 496-510, November.
    2. Iuliia Naidenova & Cornel Nesseler & Petr Parshakov & Aleksei Chusovliankin, 2020. "After the Crimea crisis: Employee discrimination in Russia and Ukraine," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 15(10), pages 1-17, October.
    3. AlQershi, Nagwan & Saufi, Roselina Binti Ahmad & Ismail, Noor Azizi & Mohamad, Mohd Rosli Bin & Ramayah, T. & Muhammad, Nik Maheran Nik & Yusoff, Mohd Nor Hakimin Bin, 2023. "The moderating role of market turbulence beyond the Covid-19 pandemic and Russia-Ukraine crisis on the relationship between intellectual capital and business sustainability," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 186(PB).
    4. Vera Mironova & Sam Whitt, 2020. "Mobilizing civilians into high-risk forms of violent collective action," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 391-405, May.
    5. Baturo, Alexander, 2023. "Russia’s Global Anti-Nazism Campaign: Seeking Support in International Organizations," Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, Working Paper Series qt7w8504tk, Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation, University of California.

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