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Using Exploratory Scenarios in Planning Practice

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  • Uri Avin
  • Robert Goodspeed

Abstract

Problem, research strategy, and findings: Despite growing interest by practitioners in using exploratory scenarios within urban planning practice, there are few detailed guidelines for how to do this. Through the discussion of five case examples, we illustrate different approaches to linking exploratory scenarios to different planning contexts. We conclude by observing that to directly inform a plan, regardless of the specific approach taken, exploratory scenarios in urban planning must incorporate stakeholder values and not only rely on expert judgment and analysis.Takeaway for practice: Exploratory scenarios are effective for analyzing uncertainty within a planning process. However, exploratory scenarios can be incorporated into planning practice in different ways, ranging from workshops among experts that aim to cultivate general learning to complex projects that result in highly detailed scenarios and recommendations for plans. Practitioners can draw on the cases we present to inspire planning methods for particular projects, taking into account specific contexts and goals.

Suggested Citation

  • Uri Avin & Robert Goodspeed, 2020. "Using Exploratory Scenarios in Planning Practice," Journal of the American Planning Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 86(4), pages 403-416, October.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjpaxx:v:86:y:2020:i:4:p:403-416
    DOI: 10.1080/01944363.2020.1746688
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    Cited by:

    1. Patrick Morency & Céline Plante & Anne-Sophie Dubé & Sophie Goudreau & Catherine Morency & Pierre-Léo Bourbonnais & Naveen Eluru & Louis-François Tétreault & Marianne Hatzopoulou & Naveen Chandra Irag, 2020. "The Potential Impacts of Urban and Transit Planning Scenarios for 2031 on Car Use and Active Transportation in a Metropolitan Area," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(14), pages 1-15, July.
    2. I. A. Antipin & N. Yu. Vlasova, 2020. "Incremental approach to regional strategising: Theory, methodology, practices," Journal of New Economy, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 21(3), pages 73-90, October.
    3. Giles Thomson & Henrik Ny & Varvara Nikulina & Sven Borén & James Ayers & Jayne Bryant, 2020. "‘Rapid Scenario Planning’ to Support a Regional Sustainability Transformation Vision: A Case Study from Blekinge, Sweden," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(17), pages 1-26, August.
    4. Alessandro Fergnani & John A. Sweeney, 2021. "Identity Wind Tunneling: A method for discovering an organization’s strategic identity using scenarios," Futures & Foresight Science, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 3(3-4), September.
    5. Kaihang Zhou & Scott Hawken, 2023. "Climate-Related Sea Level Rise and Coastal Wastewater Treatment Infrastructure Futures: Landscape Planning Scenarios for Negotiating Risks and Opportunities in Australian Urban Areas," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 15(11), pages 1-23, June.
    6. Daniel Cronan & E. Jamie Trammell & Andrew Kliskey, 2023. "From Uncertainties to Solutions: A Scenario-Based Framework for an Agriculture Protection Zone in Magic Valley Idaho," Land, MDPI, vol. 12(4), pages 1-13, April.
    7. Ivan A. Antipin & Natalya Yu. Vlasova & Olga Yu. Ivanova, 2021. "Municipal strategizing methodology: Comparative analysis and unification," Upravlenets, Ural State University of Economics, vol. 12(6), pages 33-48, October.

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