IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/rjapxx/v18y2013i4p560-593.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Lunar calendar effect: evidence of the Chinese Farmer's Calendar on the equity markets in East Asia

Author

Listed:
  • Wei-han Liu

Abstract

This paper examines the statistical relation between the Chinese Farmer's Calendar (CFC) and public market information in 10 East Asian equity markets during 1995–2004. CATREG and CART, two data mining techniques, are employed and the implications of the outcomes are discussed. The outcomes confirm that the CFC plays a supplementary role to market information in predicting the market rate of return. In addition to confirmation of lunar calendar effect by the CFC, CATREG outperforms in three markets: Taiwan, South Korea and Singapore. According to CART analyses, all the three markets value the funeral category of the CFC advice and this pattern coincides with the traditional wisdom of astrological knowledge. The latter two markets share the same set of CFC items while Taiwan has its own. This contrast indicates the market-dependent observance and different interpretation of the CFC items for determining an auspicious date for equity trading. The lunar calendar effect in the three equity markets is confirmed.

Suggested Citation

  • Wei-han Liu, 2013. "Lunar calendar effect: evidence of the Chinese Farmer's Calendar on the equity markets in East Asia," Journal of the Asia Pacific Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 18(4), pages 560-593.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:18:y:2013:i:4:p:560-593
    DOI: 10.1080/13547860.2013.803841
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/13547860.2013.803841
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/13547860.2013.803841?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Cao, Melanie & Wei, Jason, 2005. "Stock market returns: A note on temperature anomaly," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(6), pages 1559-1573, June.
    2. Ng, Travis & Chong, Terence & Du, Xin, 2010. "The value of superstitions," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 293-309, June.
    3. Utpal Bhattacharya & Hazem Daouk, 2002. "The World Price of Insider Trading," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 57(1), pages 75-108, February.
    4. Woo, Chi-Keung & Horowitz, Ira & Luk, Stephen & Lai, Aaron, 2008. "Willingness to pay and nuanced cultural cues: Evidence from Hong Kong's license-plate auction market," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 35-53, February.
    5. Cho, In-Koo, 2005. "Introduction to learning and bounded rationality," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 124(2), pages 127-128, October.
    6. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2009. "Is it the weather? Response," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 583-587, March.
    7. Richard H. Thaler, 2008. "Mental Accounting and Consumer Choice," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 27(1), pages 15-25, 01-02.
    8. Maug, Ernst, 2002. "Insider trading legislation and corporate governance," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 46(9), pages 1569-1597, October.
    9. Mark J. Kamstra & Lisa A. Kramer & Maurice D. Levi, 2003. "Winter Blues: A SAD Stock Market Cycle," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 93(1), pages 324-343, March.
    10. David Feldman & Shulamith Gross, 2005. "Mortgage Default: Classification Trees Analysis," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 30(4), pages 369-396, June.
    11. Chin-Chen Chien & Tsung-Cheng Chen, 2007. "The impact of Lunar New Year on the January anomaly in Taiwan's stock market," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 14(14), pages 1075-1077.
    12. Kang, Sang Hoon & Jiang, Zhuhua & Lee, Yeonjeong & Yoon, Seong-Min, 2010. "Weather effects on the returns and volatility of the Shanghai stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 389(1), pages 91-99.
    13. Dowling, Michael & Lucey, Brian M., 2008. "Robust global mood influences in equity pricing," Journal of Multinational Financial Management, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 145-164, April.
    14. David Hirshleifer, 2001. "Investor Psychology and Asset Pricing," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(4), pages 1533-1597, August.
    15. Thomas Kramer & Lauren Block, 2008. "Conscious and Nonconscious Components of Superstitious Beliefs in Judgment and Decision Making," Journal of Consumer Research, Journal of Consumer Research Inc., vol. 34(6), pages 783-793, October.
    16. van der Kooij, Anita J. & Meulman, Jacqueline J. & Heiser, Willem J., 2006. "Local minima in categorical multiple regression," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(2), pages 446-462, January.
    17. Brown, Philip & Chua, Angeline & Mitchell, Jason, 2002. "The influence of cultural factors on price clustering: Evidence from Asia-Pacific stock markets," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 10(3), pages 307-332, June.
    18. Yuan, Kathy & Zheng, Lu & Zhu, Qiaoqiao, 2006. "Are investors moonstruck? Lunar phases and stock returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(1), pages 1-23, January.
    19. Jacobsen, Ben & Marquering, Wessel, 2008. "Is it the weather?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 526-540, April.
    20. Kim, Chan-Wung & Park, Jinwoo, 1994. "Holiday Effects and Stock Returns: Further Evidence," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 29(1), pages 145-157, March.
    21. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Addendum: Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(5), pages 768-768, November.
    22. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2009. "Is it the weather? Comment," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 578-582, March.
    23. Hui Zou & Trevor Hastie, 2005. "Regularization and variable selection via the elastic net," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 67(2), pages 301-320, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Yang, Ann Shawing, 2016. "Calendar trading of Taiwan stock market: A study of holidays on trading detachment and interruptions," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 140-154.
    2. Xuejun Jin & Hongze Li & Bin Yu, 2023. "The day‐of‐the‐month effect and the performance of the dollar cost averaging strategy: Evidence from China," Accounting and Finance, Accounting and Finance Association of Australia and New Zealand, vol. 63(S1), pages 797-815, April.
    3. Wei-han Liu, 2019. "National culture effects on stock market volatility level," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(4), pages 1229-1253, October.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Mamatzakis, E, 2013. "Does weather affect US bank loan efficiency?," MPRA Paper 51616, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Kim, Jae H., 2017. "Stock returns and investors' mood: Good day sunshine or spurious correlation?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 94-103.
    3. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2016. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-26.
    4. Muhammad Fayyaz Sheikh & Syed Zulfiqar Ali Shah & Shahid Mahmood, 2017. "Weather Effects on Stock Returns and Volatility in South Asian Markets," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 24(2), pages 75-107, June.
    5. Lu, Jing & Chou, Robin K., 2012. "Does the weather have impacts on returns and trading activities in order-driven stock markets? Evidence from China," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 79-93.
    6. Brian Lucey, 2010. "Lunar seasonality in precious metal returns?," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(9), pages 835-838.
    7. Shigeki Sakakibara & Takashi Yamasaki & Katsuhiko Okada, 2013. "The Calendar Structure of the Japanese Stock Market: The ‘Sell in May Effect’ versus the ‘Dekansho-bushi Effect’," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 13(2), pages 161-185, June.
    8. Khaled, Mohammed S. & Keef, Stephen P., 2013. "Seasonal affective disorder: onset and recovery," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 136-139.
    9. Yang, Chih-Yuan & Jhang, Ling-Jhen & Chang, Chia-Chien, 2016. "Do investor sentiment, weather and catastrophe effects improve hedging performance? Evidence from the Taiwan options market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 35-51.
    10. Kaustia, Markku & Rantapuska, Elias, 2013. "Does mood affect trading behavior?," SAFE Working Paper Series 4, Leibniz Institute for Financial Research SAFE.
    11. Keef, Stephen P. & Khaled, Mohammed S., 2011. "A review of the seasonal affective disorder hypothesis," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 40(6), pages 959-967.
    12. Dimitrios Kourtidis & Željko Šević & Prodromos Chatzoglou, 2016. "Mood and stock returns: evidence from Greece," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 43(2), pages 242-258, May.
    13. Tihana Škrinjarić & Branka Marasović & Boško Šego, 2021. "Does the Croatian Stock Market Have Seasonal Affective Disorder?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(2), pages 1-16, February.
    14. Qadan, Mahmoud & Kliger, Doron, 2016. "The short trading day anomaly," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 38(PA), pages 62-80.
    15. Kamstra, Mark J. & Kramer, Lisa A. & Levi, Maurice D., 2012. "A careful re-examination of seasonality in international stock markets: Comment on sentiment and stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(4), pages 934-956.
    16. Nicholas Apergis & Panagiotis Artikis, 2012. "Weather Conditions and the Bank Lending Channel: A GMM Approach from US Banking," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 3(2), pages 17-34, April.
    17. Frühwirth, Manfred & Sögner, Leopold, 2015. "Weather and SAD related mood effects on the financial market," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 11-31.
    18. Wagner, Moritz & Lee, John Byong-Tek & Margaritis, Dimitris, 2022. "Mutual fund flows and seasonalities in stock returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    19. Kaplanski, Guy & Levy, Haim, 2010. "Exploitable Predictable Irrationality: The FIFA World Cup Effect on the U.S. Stock Market," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(2), pages 535-553, April.
    20. Massimiliano Castellani & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Roberto Patuelli, 2015. "Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 16(7), pages 735-759, October.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:rjapxx:v:18:y:2013:i:4:p:560-593. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/rjap .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.