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Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams: Reassessing the Informational Value of Betting Odds

Author

Listed:
  • Massimiliano Castellani

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

  • Pierpaolo Pattitoni

    (Department of Management, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Italy)

  • Roberto Patuelli

    (Department of Economics, University of Bologna, Italy; The Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis (RCEA), Rimini, Italy)

Abstract

We analyse the links between soccer match results, bets and stock returns of all listed European soccer teams. Using an event study approach, we measure abnormal returns following wins, ties and losses. Wins are associated with positive abnormal returns, and ties and losses with negative abnormal returns. Additionally, we analyse the role of bets in shaping market reactions to unexpected results, which we find to be non-significant. We propose an alternative econometric approach, using seemingly unrelated regression models, to take into account the problem of overlapping events. While our results concerning match results are confirmed, abnormal returns following unexpected results are found to be statistically significant and to magnify the positive (negative) effects of wins (losses).

Suggested Citation

  • Massimiliano Castellani & Pierpaolo Pattitoni & Roberto Patuelli, 2011. "Abnormal Returns of Soccer Teams: Reassessing the Informational Value of Betting Odds," Working Paper series 26_11, Rimini Centre for Economic Analysis, revised Aug 2013.
    • Handle: RePEc:rim:rimwps:26_11
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Pedro Godinho & Pedro Cerqueira, 2018. "The Impact of Expectations, Match Importance, and Results in the Stock Prices of European Football Teams," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 19(2), pages 230-278, February.
    2. Altuğ Tanaltay & Amirreza Safari Langroudi & Raha Akhavan-Tabatabaei & Nihat Kasap, 2021. "Can Social Media Predict Soccer Clubs’ Stock Prices? The Case of Turkish Teams and Twitter," SAGE Open, , vol. 11(2), pages 21582440211, April.
    3. Andrea Schertler & Jarmo Beurden, 2023. "How relative competitive strength moderates stock price responses after European soccer tournaments," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 93(8), pages 1385-1414, October.
    4. Oguz Ersan & Ender Demir, 2017. "New Season New Hopes: Off-Season Optimism," Eurasian Journal of Economics and Finance, Eurasian Publications, vol. 5(4), pages 36-49.
    5. Jerome Geyer-Klingeberg & Markus Hang & Matthias Walter & Andreas Rathgeber, 2018. "Do stock markets react to soccer games? A meta-regression analysis," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(19), pages 2171-2189, April.
    6. Sascha Kolaric & Zvonimir Pusic & Dirk Schiereck, 2015. "Fußball und Anlegerverhalt en im internationalen Vergleich: Evidenz von 12 Kontinentalmeisterschaften," Schmalenbach Journal of Business Research, Springer, vol. 67(3), pages 297-328, September.
    7. Tihana Škrinjarić Patrik Barišić, 2019. "Effects of Football Match Results of Croatian National Team on Stock Returns: Evidence from Zagreb Stock Exchange," Zagreb International Review of Economics and Business, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb, vol. 22(1), pages 13-45, May.
    8. Ender Demir & Ugo Rigoni, 2017. "You Lose, I Feel Better," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 18(1), pages 58-76, January.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Soccer and Bets; Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Event Clustering; Seemingly Unrelated Regression Equation (SUR);
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • L83 - Industrial Organization - - Industry Studies: Services - - - Sports; Gambling; Restaurants; Recreation; Tourism
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General

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