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Transforming structural econometrics: substantive vs. statistical premises of inference

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  • Aris Spanos

Abstract

How could one transform structural econometrics with a view to deliver empirical models that generate reliable inferences and trustworthy evidence for or against theories or claims, as well as provide trustable guidance for economic policy makers? Nell and Errouaki, in Rational Econometric Man: Transforming Structural Econometrics, put forward their proposal on how to achieve that, by discussing the effectiveness of alternative proposals in the literature. There is a lot to agree with in this book, but the primary aim of this note is to initiate the dialogue on issues where opinions differ on how to transform structural econometrics. The discussion focuses on what I consider a crucial aspect of empirical modeling—statistical adequacy—but the authors question its practical usefulness for empirical modeling. I will attempt to make a case that ‘methodological institutionalism’ cannot be properly implemented without employing the notion of statistical adequacy.

Suggested Citation

  • Aris Spanos, 2016. "Transforming structural econometrics: substantive vs. statistical premises of inference," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 426-437, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:28:y:2016:i:3:p:426-437
    DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2016.1154756
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Spanos, Aris, 2010. "Akaike-type criteria and the reliability of inference: Model selection versus statistical model specification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 158(2), pages 204-220, October.
    2. Aris Spanos, 2015. "Revisiting Haavelmo's structural econometrics: bridging the gap between theory and data," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 171-196, June.
    3. Spanos, Aris, 1989. "On Rereading Haavelmo: A Retrospective View of Econometric Modeling," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(3), pages 405-429, December.
    4. Spanos, Aris, 2010. "Statistical adequacy and the trustworthiness of empirical evidence: Statistical vs. substantive information," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 1436-1452, November.
    5. Spanos,Aris, 1986. "Statistical Foundations of Econometric Modelling," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521269124, October.
    6. Aris Spanos & Anya McGuirk, 2001. "The Model Specification Problem from a Probabilistic Reduction Perspective," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 83(5), pages 1168-1176.
    7. Aris Spanos, 2006. "Revisiting the omitted variables argument: Substantive vs. statistical adequacy," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 13(2), pages 179-218.
    8. Spanos, Aris, 1995. "On theory testing in econometrics : Modeling with nonexperimental data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 67(1), pages 189-226, May.
    9. Spanos, Aris, 1990. "The simultaneous-equations model revisited : Statistical adequacy and identification," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 87-105.
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