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Revisiting Haavelmo's structural econometrics: bridging the gap between theory and data

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  • Aris Spanos

Abstract

The objective of the paper is threefold. First, to argue that some of Haavelmo's (1944) methodological ideas and insights have been neglected because they are largely at odds with the traditional perspective that views empirical modeling in economics as an exercise in curve-fitting. Second, to make a case that this neglect has contributed to the unreliability of empirical evidence in economics that is largely due to statistical misspecification. The latter affects the reliability of inference by inducing discrepancies between the actual and nominal error probabilities. Third , to argue that the 'bridge pier' between theory and data, as envisaged by Haavelmo, T (1944) [The Probability Approach to Econometrics, Econometrica, 12 (supplement), 1-115], can be completed by blending some of his key methodological ideas and insights into a refined/extended version of the frequentist approach to inference. This new perspective is used to revisit dynamic stochastic general equilibrium modeling in an attempt to bring out the perspicacity and current relevance of some of Haavelmo's neglected ideas.

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  • Aris Spanos, 2015. "Revisiting Haavelmo's structural econometrics: bridging the gap between theory and data," Journal of Economic Methodology, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(2), pages 171-196, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:jecmet:v:22:y:2015:i:2:p:171-196
    DOI: 10.1080/1350178X.2015.1035946
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    Cited by:

    1. Owen, P. Dorian, 2018. "Replication to assess statistical adequacy," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal (2007-2020), Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW Kiel), vol. 12, pages 1-16.
    2. P. Dorian Owen, 2017. "Evaluating Ingenious Instruments for Fundamental Determinants of Long-Run Economic Growth and Development," Econometrics, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-33, September.
    3. Paloma Taltavull de La Paz & V. Raul Perez-Sanchez & Raul-Tomas Mora-Garcia & Juan-Carlos Perez-Sanchez, 2019. "Green Premium Evidence from Climatic Areas: A Case in Southern Europe, Alicante (Spain)," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-29, January.
    4. Aris Spanos, 2016. "Transforming structural econometrics: substantive vs. statistical premises of inference," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 426-437, July.

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