IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/taf/revpoe/v28y2016i3p397-416.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The effect of political factors on sovereign default

Author

Listed:
  • Sherry Yu

Abstract

This aricle examines the effect of political factors on sovereign default. Using a theoretical model, we find that political instability increases the likelihood of default. To test this theoretical implication, we use a panel logit model to estimate the effect of long- and short-run political factors, along with other macroeconomic variables, on the probability of default. Data from 68 developed and developing countries between 1970 and 2010 is used to conduct the study. Our findings suggest that a country is more likely to default when (i) it has a relatively younger political regime in place; (ii) it faces a higher chance of political turnover; and (iii) it has a less democratic political system. Economic factors are also vital; a country with stronger growth and less external debt is less likely to experience sovereign default. Robustness tests using alternative measures of political risk, trade balance and EMBI sovereign bond spreads also support the baseline findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Sherry Yu, 2016. "The effect of political factors on sovereign default," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 28(3), pages 397-416, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:28:y:2016:i:3:p:397-416
    DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2016.1200245
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1080/09538259.2016.1200245
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1080/09538259.2016.1200245?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2014. "This Time is Different: A Panoramic View of Eight Centuries of Financial Crises," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 15(2), pages 215-268, November.
    2. Carmen M. Reinhart & Kenneth S. Rogoff, 2009. "Varieties of Crises and Their Dates," Introductory Chapters, in: This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press.
    3. Federico Sturzenegger & Jeromin Zettelmeyer, 2007. "Debt Defaults and Lessons from a Decade of Crises," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262195534, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Montes, Gabriel Caldas & Maia, João Pedro Neves, 2023. "Who speaks louder, financial instruments or credit rating agencies? Analyzing the effects of different sovereign risk measures on interest rates in Brazil," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    2. M. Ayhan Kose & Peter S. O. Nagle & Franziska Ohnsorge & Naotaka Sugawara, 2020. "Can This Time Be Different? Policy Options in Times of Rising Debt," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 2008, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    3. Nader Naifar, 2020. "What Explains the Sovereign Credit Default Swap Spreads Changes in the GCC Region?," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 13(10), pages 1-22, October.
    4. Thanh C. Nguyen & Vítor Castro & Justine Wood, 2022. "Political environment and financial crises," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(1), pages 417-438, January.
    5. Naifar, Nader & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain, 2022. "Tail event-based sovereign credit risk transmission network during COVID-19 pandemic," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    6. Jorge Armando Bedoya-Cadavid & Ángela María Lanzas-Duque & Harold Salazar, 2023. "WACC for Electric Power Transmission System Operators: The Case of Colombia," Energies, MDPI, vol. 16(2), pages 1-13, January.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Stijn Claessens & M. Ayhan Kose, 2013. "Financial Crises: Explanations, Types and Implications," CAMA Working Papers 2013-06, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    2. Michael Tomz & Mark L.J. Wright, 2013. "Empirical Research on Sovereign Debt and Default," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 5(1), pages 247-272, May.
    3. Bruce N. Lehmann & David M. Modest, 1985. "The Empirical Foundations of the Arbitrage Pricing Theory I: The Empirical Tests," NBER Working Papers 1725, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Prema-chandra Athukorala, 2024. "The Sovereign Debt Crisis in Sri Lanka: Anatomy and Policy Options," Asian Economic Papers, MIT Press, vol. 23(2), pages 1-28, Summer.
    5. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Thomas Philippon & Dimitri Vayanos, 2017. "The Analytics of the Greek Crisis," NBER Macroeconomics Annual, University of Chicago Press, vol. 31(1), pages 1-81.
    6. Jeromin Zettelmeyer & Christoph Trebesch & Mitu Gulati, 2013. "The Greek debt restructuring: an autopsy [Greek bond buyback boondoggle]," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 28(75), pages 513-563.
    7. Laura Alfaro & Fabio Kanczuk, 2019. "Debt Redemption and Reserve Accumulation," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 67(2), pages 261-287, June.
    8. Christoph A. Schaltegger & Martin Weder, 2015. "Fiscal Adjustments and the Probability of Sovereign Default," Kyklos, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 68(1), pages 81-110, February.
    9. Rho, Caterina & Saenz, Manrique, 2021. "Financial stress and the probability of sovereign default," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Pierre-Olivier Gourinchas & Maurice Obstfeld, 2012. "Stories of the Twentieth Century for the Twenty-First," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 4(1), pages 226-265, January.
    11. Carmen M. Reinhart & Christoph Trebesch, 2015. "The Pitfalls of External Dependence: Greece, 1829–2015," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 46(2 (Fall)), pages 307-328.
    12. Mark Wright, 2018. "The Seniority Structure of Sovereign Debt," 2018 Meeting Papers 928, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    13. Keiichiro Kobayashi & Tomoyuki Nakajima & Shuhei Takahashi, 2023. "Debt Overhang and Lack of Lender's Commitment," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 55(8), pages 2153-2185, December.
    14. Maurice Obstfeld, 2013. "Crises and the International System," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(2), pages 143-155, June.
    15. Lorenzo Forni & Geremia Palomba & Joana Pereira & Christine Richmond, 2021. "Sovereign debt restructuring and growth," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 73(2), pages 671-697.
    16. Ghosal, Sayantan & Miller, Marcus & Thampanishvong, Kannika, 2010. "Delay and Haircuts in Sovereign Debt: Recovery and Sustainability," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-100, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    17. Eberhardt, Markus, 2018. "(At Least) Four Theories for Sovereign Default," CEPR Discussion Papers 13084, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    18. Luc Laeven, 2011. "Banking Crises: A Review," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 3(1), pages 17-40, December.
    19. Chwieroth, Jeffrey & Simpson, Cohen & Walter, Andrew, 2014. "Networked default: public debt, trade embeddedness, and partisan survival in democracies since 1870," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 60929, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    20. Tamon Asonuma & Michael G. Papaioannou & Takahiro Tsuda, 2021. "Banking Crisis, Sovereign Debt Restructurings, and Financial Stability Policies in Cyprus During 2012–13," Multinational Finance Journal, Multinational Finance Journal, vol. 25(3-4), pages 163-186, September.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:28:y:2016:i:3:p:397-416. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Longhurst (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.tandfonline.com/CRPE20 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.