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A Nobel Prize for the Empirical Analysis of Asset Prices

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  • Mimoza Shabani
  • Jan Toporowski

Abstract

The 2013 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economics was awarded to Eugene Fama, Robert Shiller, and Lars Peter Hansen for their empirical analysis of asset prices. The paper reviews critically the work of the three economists and highlights the differing conclusions that the three researchers reached on the relatively narrow question of the rationality of individual investors. The paper argues that there is a time inconsistency in the idea that markets reveal information about the future and concludes that, despite the sophistication of their statistical analysis, the laureates have been unable to demonstrate how a sophisticated financial economy can produce their empirical results.

Suggested Citation

  • Mimoza Shabani & Jan Toporowski, 2015. "A Nobel Prize for the Empirical Analysis of Asset Prices," Review of Political Economy, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 27(1), pages 62-85, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:revpoe:v:27:y:2015:i:1:p:62-85
    DOI: 10.1080/09538259.2014.961283
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1936, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    2. Veblen, Thorstein, 1904. "Theory of Business Enterprise," History of Economic Thought Books, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, number veblen1904.
    3. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
    4. Jan Toporowski, 2012. "Corporate Liquidity and Financial Fragility: The Role of Investment, Debt and Interest," Working Papers 169, Department of Economics, SOAS University of London, UK.
    5. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1987. "Prices of single-family homes since 1970: new indexes for four cities," New England Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston, issue Sep, pages 45-56.
    6. Shiller, Robert J., 1982. "Consumption, asset markets and macroeconomic fluctuations," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 17(1), pages 203-238, January.
    7. Case, Karl E & Shiller, Robert J, 1989. "The Efficiency of the Market for Single-Family Homes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 125-137, March.
    8. Karl E. Case & Robert J. Shiller, 1990. "Forecasting Prices and Excess Returns in the Housing Market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 18(3), pages 253-273, September.
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